BangladeshversusScotland

2 Jun 2026 · T20

Recorded result

Bangladesh won by 34 runs

Bangladesh20.0 overs152/6 Scotland19.0 overs118/10 Grange Cricket Club Ground, Raeburn Place, Edinburgh ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Scotland more likely to win

28%Bangladesh72%Scotland

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Scotland rate stronger than Bangladesh (1,725 vs 1,521 on our results rating)
In the last 7 T20 internationals between these sides, Bangladesh won 6 and Scotland won 1
Scotland are playing at home in the United Kingdom

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Bangladesh started on 25%; Bangladesh batted first.

Bangladesh’s chance of winning (%) · Scotland is the rest

Bangladesh's chances ranged from 15% to 100% during the match (Scotland: 0% to 85%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 6.3: Marufa Akter to KE Bryce, KE Bryce out. Bangladesh up from 55% to 70%.
2nd inns 11.1: Rabeya Khan to A Lister, A Lister out. Bangladesh up from 47% to 62%.
2nd inns 12.6: Ritu Moni to SJ Bryce, SJ Bryce out. Bangladesh up from 59% to 76%.

Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Bangladesh152/6 Scotland118/10

Innings 1

Bangladesh

152/620.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Bangladesh batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Dilara Aktercaught · G Fontenla · Kathryn Bryce 2 fours · 1 sixes	caught · G Fontenla · b Kathryn Bryce	15	10	2	1	150.00
Juairiya Ferdouscaught · Katherine Fraser · Kirstie Gordon 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Katherine Fraser · b Kirstie Gordon	0	2	0	0	0.00
Taj Neharbowled · Kathryn Bryce 1 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Kathryn Bryce	4	3	1	0	133.33
Nigar Sultanacaught · Katherine Fraser · MG Maceira 6 fours · 1 sixes	caught · Katherine Fraser · b MG Maceira	58	47	6	1	123.40
Sobhana Mostarycaught · Priyanaz Chatterji · Katherine Fraser 5 fours · 1 sixes

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
G Fontenla0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	29	0	14.50	0
Kathryn Bryce0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	26	2	6.50	1
Kirstie Gordon0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	18	1	4.50	1
Priyanaz Chatterji0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	25	0	8.33	1
Katherine Fraser0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	20	1	10.00	0
Abtaha Maqsood0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	11	0	5.50	0
MG Maceira0 maidens · 6 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	23	2	7.67	6

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	15	15/0
2	4	19/1
3	4	23/2
4	8	31/3
5	14	45/3
6	7	52/3
7	2	54/3
8	12	66/3
9	7	73/3
10	9	82/3
11	5	87/3
12	6	93/3
13	8	101/4
14	5	106/4
15	4	110/4
16	7	117/4
17	7	124/4
18	8	132/4
19	13	145/4
20	7	152/6

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