IndiaversusSouth Africa

19 Dec 2025 · T20

Motera Stadium, Ahmedabad · Venue photograph

Recorded result

India won by 30 runs

India20.0 overs231/5 South Africa20.0 overs201/8 Motera Stadium, Ahmedabad ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

India more likely to win

88%India12%South Africa

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, India rate stronger than South Africa (1,822 vs 1,575 on our results rating)
In the last 10 T20 internationals between these sides, India won 7 and South Africa won 3
India are playing at home in India

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

India started on 87%; India batted first.

India’s chance of winning (%) · South Africa is the rest

India's chances ranged from 69% to 100% during the match (South Africa: 0% to 31%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 6.3: CV Varun to RR Hendricks, RR Hendricks out. India up from 85% to 91%.
2nd inns 10.2: JJ Bumrah to Q de Kock, Q de Kock out. India up from 69% to 80%.
2nd inns 12.3: CV Varun to AK Markram, AK Markram out. India up from 86% to 92%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

India231/5 South Africa201/8

Innings 1

India

231/520.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

India batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Sanju Samsonbowled · George Linde 4 fours · 2 sixes	bowled · b George Linde	37	22	4	2	168.18
Abhishek Sharmacaught · Quinton de Kock · Corbin Bosch 6 fours · 1 sixes	caught · Quinton de Kock · b Corbin Bosch	34	21	6	1	161.90
Tilak Varmarun out · Quinton de Kock, Ottniel Baartman · Ottniel Baartman 10 fours · 1 sixes	run out · Quinton de Kock, Ottniel Baartman	73	42	10	1	173.81
Suryakumar Yadavcaught · David Miller · Corbin Bosch 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · David Miller · b Corbin Bosch

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Lungi Ngidi0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	29	0	7.25	1
Marco Jansen0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	50	0	12.50	0
Ottniel Baartman0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	39	1	13.00	3
Corbin Bosch0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	44	2	14.67	1
Donavon Ferreira0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	20	0	10.00	1
George Linde0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	46	1	11.50	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	6	6/0
2	19	25/0
3	2	27/0
4	14	41/0
5	15	56/0
6	11	67/1
7	9	76/1
8	9	85/1
9	12	97/1
10	4	101/2
11	8	109/2
12	6	115/2
13	16	131/3
14	27	158/3
15	12	170/3
16	8	178/3
17	17	195/3
18	10	205/3
19	9	214/3
20	17	231/5

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