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Photo: RIDHVAN SHARMA
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United States of America Women tour of Zimbabwe · 2024/25 · Women
23 Oct 2024 · ODI
Harare Sports Club · Venue photographRecorded result
Zimbabwe more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Zimbabwe started on 61%; Zimbabwe batted first.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Modester Mupachikwacaught · Ella Claridge · Isani Vaghela 5 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Ella Claridge · b Isani Vaghela | 34 | 59 | 5 | 0 | 57.63 |
| Sharne Mayerscaught · Sindhu Sriharsha · Geetika Kodali 2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Sindhu Sriharsha · b Geetika Kodali | 14 | 19 | 2 | 0 | 73.68 |
| Chipo Mugeribowled · Geetika Kodali 5 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Geetika Kodali | 28 | 46 | 5 | 0 | 60.87 |
| B Bizacaught · JL Aras · S Immadi 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · JL Aras · b S Immadi | 7 | 22 | 1 | 0 | 31.82 |
| Ashley Ndirayabowled · S Immadi 3 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b S Immadi | 20 | 21 | 3 | 0 | 95.24 |
Zimbabwe's chances ranged from 0% to 76% during the match (United States of America: 24% to 100%).
Tested on every ball of 175 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.129, against 0.189 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| lbw · b S Immadi |
| 4 |
| 4 |
| 1 |
| 0 |
| 100.00 |
| R Pasipanodyacaught · Sindhu Sriharsha · Geetika Kodali 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Sindhu Sriharsha · b Geetika Kodali | 4 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 28.57 |
|---|
| Christabel Chatonzwabowled · Geetika Kodali 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Geetika Kodali | 8 | 20 | 0 | 0 | 40.00 |
|---|
| Audrey Mazvishayanot out 4 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 26* | 41 | 4 | 0 | 63.41 |
|---|
| Nomvelo Sibandalbw · Geetika Kodali 0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Geetika Kodali | 5 | 31 | 0 | 0 | 16.13 |
|---|
| O Charebowled · AI Chudasama 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b AI Chudasama | 3 | 15 | 0 | 0 | 20.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 5 · legbyes: 2 · wides: 19 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Tara Norris0 maidens · 5 wides · 0 no-balls | 8.0 | 0 | 21 | 0 | 2.63 | 5 | 0 |
| JL Aras0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls | 7.0 | 0 | 32 | 0 | 4.57 | 3 | 0 |
| Geetika Kodali1 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 1 | 43 | 5 | 4.30 | 3 | 0 |
| Isani Vaghela2 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls | 6.0 | 2 | 16 | 1 | 2.67 | 3 | 0 |
| AI Chudasama1 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 8.4 | 1 | 32 | 1 | 3.69 | 1 | 0 |
| S Immadi0 maidens · 4 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.0 | 0 | 28 | 3 | 3.11 | 4 | 0 |
1-23 (Sharne Mayers, 6.3) · 2-80 (Modester Mupachikwa, 20.1) · 3-86 (Chipo Mugeri, 22.1) · 4-109 (B Biza, 27.2) · 5-113 (Josephine Nkomo, 28.0) · 6-117 (Ashley Ndiraya, 29.1) · 7-127 (R Pasipanodya, 33.0) · 8-130 (Christabel Chatonzwa, 34.2) · 9-162 (Nomvelo Sibanda, 44.1) · 10-179 (O Chare, 48.4)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | 3/0 |
| 2 | 10 | 13/0 |
| 3 | 1 | 14/0 |
| 4 | 2 | 16/0 |
| 5 | 2 | 18/0 |
| 6 | 5 | 23/0 |
| 7 | 0 | 23/1 |
| 8 | 2 | 25/1 |
| 9 | 9 | 34/1 |
| 10 | 0 | 34/1 |
| 11 | 3 | 37/1 |
| 12 | 0 | 37/1 |
| 13 | 12 | 49/1 |
| 14 | 2 | 51/1 |
| 15 | 4 | 55/1 |
| 16 | 1 | 56/1 |
| 17 | 2 | 58/1 |
| 18 | 9 | 67/1 |
| 19 | 5 | 72/1 |
| 20 | 8 | 80/1 |
| 21 | 5 | 85/2 |
| 22 | 1 | 86/2 |
| 23 | 1 | 87/3 |
| 24 | 1 | 88/3 |
| 25 | 11 | 99/3 |
| 26 | 2 | 101/3 |
| 27 | 8 | 109/3 |
| 28 | 4 | 113/5 |
| 29 | 3 | 116/5 |
| 30 | 1 | 117/6 |
| 31 | 4 | 121/6 |
| 32 | 4 | 125/6 |
| 33 | 2 | 127/7 |
| 34 | 1 | 128/7 |
| 35 | 6 | 134/8 |
| 36 | 5 | 139/8 |
| 37 | 4 | 143/8 |
| 38 | 4 | 147/8 |
| 39 | 1 | 148/8 |
| 40 | 5 | 153/8 |
| 41 | 0 | 153/8 |
| 42 | 6 | 159/8 |
| 43 | 1 | 160/8 |
| 44 | 2 | 162/8 |
| 45 | 2 | 164/9 |
| 46 | 5 | 169/9 |
| 47 | 3 | 172/9 |
| 48 | 7 | 179/9 |
| 49 | 0 | 179/10 |
Tara Norris: Tukpuki · CC BY-SA 4.0
Sindhu Sriharsha: Hong Kong Cricket · CC BY 3.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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