Rajasthan RoyalsversusDelhi Capitals

28 Mar 2024 · T20

Sawai Mansingh Stadium, Jaipur · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Rajasthan Royals won by 12 runs

Rajasthan Royals20.0 overs185/5 Delhi Capitals20.0 overs173/5 Sawai Mansingh Stadium, Jaipur ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Rajasthan Royals started on 53%; Rajasthan Royals batted first.

Rajasthan Royals’s chance of winning (%) · Delhi Capitals is the rest

Rajasthan Royals's chances ranged from 28% to 99% during the match (Delhi Capitals: 1% to 72%).

Biggest swings

1.5: Mukesh Kumar to YBK Jaiswal, YBK Jaiswal out. Delhi Capitals up from 44% to 55%.
2nd inns 11.2: Avesh Khan to DA Warner, DA Warner out. Rajasthan Royals up from 64% to 74%.
2nd inns 18.1: Sandeep Sharma to T Stubbs, six by T Stubbs. Delhi Capitals up from 11% to 23%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Rajasthan Royals185/5 Delhi Capitals173/5

Innings 1