New ZealandversusAustralia

4 Oct 2025 · T20

Bay Oval, Mount Maunganui · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Australia won by 3 wickets

New Zealand20.0 overs156/9 Australia18.0 overs160/7 Bay Oval, Mount Maunganui ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Australia more likely to win

39%New Zealand61%Australia

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Australia rate stronger than New Zealand (1,758 vs 1,700 on our results rating)
In the last 10 T20 internationals between these sides, Australia won 7 and New Zealand won 3
New Zealand are playing at home in New Zealand

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

New Zealand started on 37%; New Zealand batted first.

New Zealand’s chance of winning (%) · Australia is the rest

New Zealand's chances ranged from 0% to 46% during the match (Australia: 54% to 100%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 10.1: JDS Neesham to MP Stoinis, MP Stoinis out. New Zealand up from 15% to 36%.
2nd inns 12.6: BV Sears to MJ Owen, MJ Owen out. New Zealand up from 17% to 40%.
2nd inns 15.4: JA Duffy to XC Bartlett, XC Bartlett out. New Zealand up from 8% to 21%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

New Zealand156/9 Australia160/7

Innings 1

New Zealand

156/920.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

New Zealand batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Tim Seifertcaught · Travis Head · Xavier Bartlett 5 fours · 3 sixes	caught · Travis Head · b Xavier Bartlett	48	35	5	3	137.14
Devon Conwaycaught · Mitchell Marsh · Josh Hazlewood 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Mitchell Marsh · b Josh Hazlewood	0	2	0	0	0.00
Tim Robinsoncaught · Alex Carey · Josh Hazlewood 1 fours · 1 sixes	caught · Alex Carey · b Josh Hazlewood	13	10	1	1	130.00
Mark Chapmancaught · Tim David · Sean Abbott 1 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Tim David · b Sean Abbott	4	5	1	0	80.00
Daryl Mitchellcaught · Alex Carey · Marcus Stoinis 1 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Alex Carey · b Marcus Stoinis	9	10	1	0	90.00

Bowler	Overs	M	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Josh Hazlewood0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	26	2	6.50	0
Xavier Bartlett0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	25	2	6.25	0
Sean Abbott0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	25	3	6.25	2
Adam Zampa0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	30	1	7.50	0
Marcus Stoinis1 maidens · 6 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	1	43	1	10.75	6

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	7	7/1
2	4	11/1
3	10	21/1
4	15	36/1
5	5	41/2
6	5	46/3
7	10	56/3
8	10	66/3
9	11	77/3
10	0	77/4
11	5	82/4
12	17	99/4
13	1	100/5
14	10	110/5
15	17	127/5
16	7	134/5
17	6	140/6
18	4	144/7
19	3	147/9
20	9	156/9

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