GloucestershireversusBirmingham Bears

22 May 2026 · T20

County Ground, Bristol · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Gloucestershire won by 47 runs

Gloucestershire16.1 overs121/10 Birmingham Bears14.4 overs74/10 County Ground, Bristol ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Gloucestershire started on 45%; Gloucestershire batted first.

Gloucestershire’s chance of winning (%) · Birmingham Bears is the rest

Gloucestershire's chances ranged from 6% to 100% during the match (Birmingham Bears: 0% to 94%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 6.6: CN Miles to RM Yates, RM Yates out. Gloucestershire up from 24% to 64%.
2nd inns 8.1: CN Miles to JA Thompson, JA Thompson out. Gloucestershire up from 49% to 82%.
2nd inns 10.3: OJ Price to CR Woakes, CR Woakes out. Gloucestershire up from 53% to 88%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Gloucestershire121/10 Birmingham Bears74/10

Innings 1