Chittagong KingsversusKhulna Tigers

16 Jan 2025 · T20

Chittagong Divisional Stadium · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Chittagong Kings won by 45 runs

Chittagong Kings20.0 overs200/7 Khulna Tigers20.0 overs155/9 Chittagong Divisional Stadium ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Chittagong Kings started on 53%; Chittagong Kings batted first.

Chittagong Kings’s chance of winning (%) · Khulna Tigers is the rest

Chittagong Kings's chances ranged from 48% to 100% during the match (Khulna Tigers: 0% to 52%).

Biggest swings

2.2: Abu Hider to Usman Khan, Usman Khan out. Khulna Tigers up from 39% to 50%.
2nd inns 3.3: Shoriful Islam to Mehedi Hasan Miraz, Mehedi Hasan Miraz out. Chittagong Kings up from 81% to 88%.
2nd inns 4.5: Mohammad Wasim to Mohammad Naim, Mohammad Naim out. Chittagong Kings up from 86% to 93%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Chittagong Kings200/7 Khulna Tigers155/9

Innings 1