AustraliaversusNew Zealand

Australia more likely to win

Why

• On results in T20 internationals so far, Australia rate stronger than New Zealand (1,819 vs 1,587 on our results rating)
• In the last 10 T20 internationals between these sides, Australia won 8 and New Zealand won 2
• New Zealand are playing at home in New Zealand

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

Australia started on 83%; Australia batted first.

Australia's chances ranged from 83% to 100% during the match (New Zealand: 0% to 17%).

Biggest swings

1. 0.4: JM Kerr to G Voll, four by G Voll. Australia up from 83% to 85%.
2. 1.1: EJ Carson to G Voll, four by G Voll. Australia up from 86% to 88%.
3. 5.1: SFM Devine to G Voll, G Voll out. New Zealand up from 5% to 7%.

Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.