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ICC Men's T20 World Cup Sub Regional Americas Qualifier · 2024/25 · Men
16 Dec 2024 · T20
Recorded result
Bahamas more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Bahamas started on 67%; Bahamas batted first.
Bahamas's chances ranged from 16% to 100% during the match (Mexico: 0% to 84%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marc Taylorbowled · Pratik Singh Bais 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Pratik Singh Bais | 3 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 33.33 |
| Festus Bennlbw · Shoaib Rafiq 0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Shoaib Rafiq | 3 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 37.50 |
| E Duffcaught · Praveen Santhanakrishnan · PK Mohanarangam 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Praveen Santhanakrishnan · b PK Mohanarangam | 6 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
| J Jemisoncaught · Shantanu Kaveri · PK Mohanarangam 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Shantanu Kaveri · b PK Mohanarangam | 6 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
| D Wheatleylbw · PK Mohanarangam 0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b PK Mohanarangam | 4 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 57.14 |
| lbw · b Luis Hermida |
| 10 |
| 14 |
| 1 |
| 0 |
| 71.43 |
| DG Weakleylbw · Luis Hermida 0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Luis Hermida | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| K Hindsbowled · R Ankad 5 fours · 2 sixes | bowled · b R Ankad | 48 | 33 | 5 | 2 | 145.45 |
|---|
| Rudolph Foxcaught · R Poojary · Luis Hermida 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · R Poojary · b Luis Hermida | 2 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 22.22 |
|---|
| R Smithnot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 3* | 12 | 0 | 0 | 25.00 |
|---|
| Antonio Harrisnot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 1* | 2 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 1 · legbyes: 6 · wides: 2 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pratik Singh Bais0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 19 | 1 | 4.75 | 1 | 0 |
| Shoaib Rafiq1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 1.25 | 0 | 0 |
| PK Mohanarangam0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 6 | 3 | 1.50 | 0 | 0 |
| R Ankad0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 18 | 1 | 6.00 | 1 | 0 |
| Luis Hermida0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 30 | 3 | 7.50 | 0 | 0 |
| Shantanu Kaveri0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 10.00 | 0 | 0 |
1-8 (Marc Taylor, 2.4) · 2-8 (Festus Benn, 3.1) · 3-19 (E Duff, 5.5) · 4-24 (J Jemison, 7.2) · 5-36 (D Wheatley, 10.0) · 6-38 (R Davson, 10.2) · 7-39 (DG Weakley, 10.5) · 8-59 (Rudolph Fox, 14.1) · 9-92 (K Hinds, 19.3)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | 4/0 |
| 2 | 2 | 6/0 |
| 3 | 2 | 8/1 |
| 4 | 4 | 12/2 |
| 5 | 5 | 17/2 |
| 6 | 2 | 19/3 |
| 7 | 4 | 23/3 |
| 8 | 1 | 24/4 |
| 9 | 10 | 34/4 |
| 10 | 2 | 36/5 |
| 11 | 3 | 39/7 |
| 12 | 1 | 40/7 |
| 13 | 9 | 49/7 |
| 14 | 10 | 59/7 |
| 15 | 7 | 66/8 |
| 16 | 2 | 68/8 |
| 17 | 11 | 79/8 |
| 18 | 3 | 82/8 |
| 19 | 8 | 90/8 |
| 20 | 5 | 95/9 |
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.