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Kwibuka Women's Twenty20 Tournament · 2024 · Women
1 Jun 2024 · T20
Kenya more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Kenya started on 76%; Kenya batted first.
Kenya's chances ranged from 52% to 100% during the match (Malawi: 0% to 48%).
Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Queentor Abelcaught · T Luka · V Phiri 2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · T Luka · b V Phiri | 18 | 21 | 2 | 0 | 85.71 |
| E Wachiracaught · Sugeni Kananji · L Malino 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Sugeni Kananji · b L Malino | 24 | 32 | 1 | 0 | 75.00 |
| V Abugacaught · Sugeni Kananji · V Phiri 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Sugeni Kananji · b V Phiri | 3 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 42.86 |
| V Ookobowled · L Malino 1 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b L Malino | 15 | 19 | 1 | 0 | 78.95 |
| L Idambobowled · Sugeni Kananji 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Sugeni Kananji | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 20.00 |
| C Muthonilbw · Sugeni Kananji1 fours · 0 sixes |
| lbw · b Sugeni Kananji |
| 9 |
| 14 |
| 1 |
| 0 |
| 64.29 |
| A Wanjiracaught · Sugeni Kananji · L Malino 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Sugeni Kananji · b L Malino | 4 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 66.67 |
|---|
| JS Ndanurun out · Sugeni Kananji, M Kudimba · V Phiri 0 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Sugeni Kananji, M Kudimba | 4 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 80.00 |
|---|
| M Jumanot out 1 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 6* | 8 | 1 | 0 | 75.00 |
|---|
| F Odhiambonot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 2* | 3 | 0 | 0 | 66.67 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 2 · legbyes: 2 · wides: 16 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ketrina Chingaipe0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 17 | 0 | 5.67 | 1 | 0 |
| T Chabila0 maidens · 4 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 16 | 0 | 5.33 | 4 | 0 |
| V Phiri0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 16 | 2 | 4.00 | 2 | 0 |
| LL Dimba0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 20 | 0 | 6.67 | 1 | 0 |
| L Malino0 maidens · 4 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 17 | 3 | 4.25 | 4 | 0 |
| Sugeni Kananji0 maidens · 4 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 16 | 2 | 5.33 | 4 | 0 |
1-36 (Queentor Abel, 6.4) · 2-46 (V Abuga, 8.1) · 3-73 (E Wachira, 12.2) · 4-74 (L Idambo, 13.1) · 5-81 (V Ooko, 15.0) · 6-88 (A Wanjira, 16.4) · 7-96 (C Muthoni, 17.5) · 8-104 (JS Ndanu, 19.3)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | 4/0 |
| 2 | 5 | 9/0 |
| 3 | 9 | 18/0 |
| 4 | 5 | 23/0 |
| 5 | 6 | 29/0 |
| 6 | 6 | 35/0 |
| 7 | 2 | 37/1 |
| 8 | 9 | 46/1 |
| 9 | 5 | 51/2 |
| 10 | 6 | 57/2 |
| 11 | 8 | 65/2 |
| 12 | 5 | 70/2 |
| 13 | 4 | 74/3 |
| 14 | 5 | 79/4 |
| 15 | 2 | 81/5 |
| 16 | 4 | 85/5 |
| 17 | 5 | 90/6 |
| 18 | 7 | 97/7 |
| 19 | 5 | 102/7 |
| 20 | 4 | 106/8 |
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.