United Arab EmiratesversusThailand

28 Nov 2025 · T20

Recorded result

United Arab Emirates won by 7 runs

United Arab Emirates20.0 overs80/10 Thailand19.3 overs73/10 Terdthai Cricket Ground, Bangkok ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Thailand more likely to win

24%United Arab Emirates76%Thailand

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Thailand rate stronger than United Arab Emirates (1,697 vs 1,620 on our results rating)
In the last 10 T20 internationals between these sides, Thailand won 8 and United Arab Emirates won 2
Thailand are playing at home in Thailand

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

United Arab Emirates started on 22%; United Arab Emirates batted first.

United Arab Emirates’s chance of winning (%) · Thailand is the rest

United Arab Emirates's chances ranged from 5% to 95% during the match (Thailand: 5% to 95%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 10.2: Vaishnave Mahesh to N Chaiwai, N Chaiwai out. United Arab Emirates up from 27% to 50%.
2nd inns 12.4: ER Oza to S Laomi, S Laomi out. United Arab Emirates up from 42% to 66%.
2nd inns 18.3: ER Oza to S Khiaoto, S Khiaoto out. United Arab Emirates up from 76% to 94%.

Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

United Arab Emirates80/10 Thailand73/10

Innings 1