AustraliaversusNew Zealand

22 Sept 2024 · T20

Recorded result

Australia won by 29 runs

Australia19.3 overs142/10 New Zealand20.0 overs113/7 Ray Mitchell Oval, Harrup Park, Mackay ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Australia more likely to win

87%Australia13%New Zealand

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Australia rate stronger than New Zealand (1,692 vs 1,482 on our results rating)
In the last 10 T20 internationals between these sides, Australia won 8 and New Zealand won 2
Australia are playing at home in Australia

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Australia started on 87%; Australia batted first.

Australia’s chance of winning (%) · New Zealand is the rest

Australia's chances ranged from 60% to 100% during the match (New Zealand: 0% to 40%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 6.5: G Wareham to GE Plimmer, GE Plimmer out. Australia up from 61% to 73%.
2nd inns 9.3: A Gardner to AC Kerr, AC Kerr out. Australia up from 71% to 80%.
2nd inns 10.1: D Brown to SW Bates, SW Bates out. Australia up from 79% to 86%.

Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Australia142/10 New Zealand113/7

Innings 1

Australia

142/1019.3 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Australia batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Alyssa Healycaught · Amelia Kerr · Eden Carson 6 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Amelia Kerr · b Eden Carson	38	25	6	0	152.00
Beth Mooneybowled · Fran Jonas 2 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Fran Jonas	10	7	2	0	142.86
Ellyse Perryrun out · Izzy Gaze · Amelia Kerr 4 fours · 0 sixes	run out · Izzy Gaze	34	33	4	0	103.03
Ashleigh Gardnerbowled · Amelia Kerr1 fours · 0 sixes

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Molly Penfold0 maidens · 4 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	25	0	12.50	4
Eden Carson0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	26	1	6.50	0
Fran Jonas0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	32	1	8.00	1
Lea Tahuhu0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	27	1	6.75	0
Amelia Kerr0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	20	4	5.00	0
Brooke Halliday0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	1.3	11	2	7.33	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	15	15/0
2	8	23/0
3	5	28/1
4	6	34/1
5	7	41/1
6	7	48/1
7	4	52/1
8	8	60/1
9	10	70/1
10	3	73/2
11	15	88/2
12	3	91/3
13	6	97/3
14	8	105/3
15	9	114/4
16	4	118/5
17	5	123/5
18	11	134/6
19	5	139/9
20	3	142/10

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