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Asian Cricket Council Men's Challenger Cup · 2023/24 · Men
4 Feb 2024 · T20
Recorded result
Japan more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Japan started on 74%; Japan batted first.
Japan's chances ranged from 63% to 100% during the match (Maldives: 0% to 37%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L Yamamoto-Lakecaught · Ibrahim Rizan · Umar Adam 2 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Ibrahim Rizan · b Umar Adam | 21 | 18 | 2 | 1 | 116.67 |
| KH Abecaught · Ibrahim Rizan · Mohamed Ishmath 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Ibrahim Rizan · b Mohamed Ishmath | 4 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 40.00 |
| Kendel Kadowaki-Fleminglbw · Nazwan Ismail 1 fours · 1 sixes | lbw · b Nazwan Ismail | 16 | 12 | 1 | 1 | 133.33 |
| A Patmorebowled · Ibrahim Rizan 3 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Ibrahim Rizan | 18 | 11 | 3 | 0 | 163.64 |
| S Ravichandrancaught · Hassan Rasheed · Ibrahim Hassan 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Hassan Rasheed · b Ibrahim Hassan | 26 | 24 | 1 | 0 | 108.33 |
| run out · KTK Rodrigo |
| 26 |
| 22 |
| 0 |
| 2 |
| 118.18 |
| Ibrahim Takahashibowled · Nazwan Ismail 0 fours · 1 sixes | bowled · b Nazwan Ismail | 11 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 183.33 |
|---|
| R Sakurano-Thomascaught · Umar Adam · Ibrahim Hassan 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Umar Adam · b Ibrahim Hassan | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 100.00 |
|---|
| K Kato-Staffordnot out 2 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 13* | 9 | 2 | 0 | 144.44 |
|---|
| M Taniyamanot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 1* | 1 | 0 | 0 | 100.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 1 · legbyes: 1 · wides: 5 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Umar Adam0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 29 | 1 | 7.25 | 1 | 0 |
| Ibrahim Hassan0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 27 | 2 | 6.75 | 1 | 0 |
| Mohamed Ishmath0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 22 | 1 | 5.50 | 1 | 0 |
| Ibrahim Rizan0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 29 | 1 | 7.25 | 0 | 0 |
| Nazwan Ismail0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 32 | 2 | 10.67 | 2 | 0 |
| Ismail Ali0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 9 | 0 | 9.00 | 0 | 0 |
1-26 (KH Abe, 4.1) · 2-30 (L Yamamoto-Lake, 5.2) · 3-59 (Kendel Kadowaki-Fleming, 8.0) · 4-63 (A Patmore, 8.5) · 5-115 (S Ravichandran, 15.5) · 6-116 (D Suzuki, 16.2) · 7-128 (Ibrahim Takahashi, 17.2) · 8-148 (R Sakurano-Thomas, 19.4)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | 6/0 |
| 2 | 3 | 9/0 |
| 3 | 2 | 11/0 |
| 4 | 15 | 26/0 |
| 5 | 3 | 29/1 |
| 6 | 7 | 36/2 |
| 7 | 12 | 48/2 |
| 8 | 11 | 59/3 |
| 9 | 4 | 63/4 |
| 10 | 10 | 73/4 |
| 11 | 6 | 79/4 |
| 12 | 9 | 88/4 |
| 13 | 8 | 96/4 |
| 14 | 10 | 106/4 |
| 15 | 5 | 111/4 |
| 16 | 4 | 115/5 |
| 17 | 7 | 122/6 |
| 18 | 11 | 133/7 |
| 19 | 11 | 144/7 |
| 20 | 6 | 150/8 |
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.