**Newlands, Cape Town**
Photo: The original uploader was PaddyBriggs at English Wikipedia.
Original photograph ↗ · Public domain
Resized to at most 1600px wide and converted to WebP. Display crops vary; source photographs are historical.
Historical photograph; current appearance and conditions may differ.

SA20 · 2023/24 · Men

Sunrisers Eastern CapeversusMI Cape Town

16 Jan 2024 · T20

Newlands, Cape Town · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Sunrisers Eastern Cape won by 4 runs

Sunrisers Eastern Cape20.0 overs202/2 MI Cape Town20.0 overs198/5 Newlands, Cape Town ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Sunrisers Eastern Cape started on 48%; Sunrisers Eastern Cape batted first.

Sunrisers Eastern Cape’s chance of winning (%) · MI Cape Town is the rest

Sunrisers Eastern Cape's chances ranged from 28% to 91% during the match (MI Cape Town: 10% to 72%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 18.1: DJ Worrall to KA Pollard, KA Pollard out. Sunrisers Eastern Cape up from 51% to 72%.
2nd inns 19.1: OEG Baartman to C Esterhuizen, six by C Esterhuizen. MI Cape Town up from 23% to 58%.
2nd inns 19.6: OEG Baartman to SM Curran, 0 runs to SM Curran. Sunrisers Eastern Cape up from 68% to 100%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Sunrisers Eastern Cape202/2 MI Cape Town198/5

Innings 1