Royal Challengers BengaluruversusPunjab Kings

9 May 2024 · T20

Himachal Pradesh Cricket Association Stadium, Dharamsala · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Royal Challengers Bengaluru won by 60 runs

Royal Challengers Bengaluru20.0 overs241/7 Punjab Kings17.0 overs181/10 Himachal Pradesh Cricket Association Stadium, Dharamsala ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Royal Challengers Bengaluru started on 51%; Royal Challengers Bengaluru batted first.

Royal Challengers Bengaluru’s chance of winning (%) · Punjab Kings is the rest

Royal Challengers Bengaluru's chances ranged from 46% to 100% during the match (Punjab Kings: 0% to 54%).

Biggest swings

2.2: V Kaverappa to F du Plessis, F du Plessis out. Punjab Kings up from 40% to 52%.
4.4: V Kaverappa to WG Jacks, WG Jacks out. Punjab Kings up from 40% to 51%.
2nd inns 8.6: KV Sharma to RR Rossouw, RR Rossouw out. Royal Challengers Bengaluru up from 85% to 91%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Royal Challengers Bengaluru241/7 Punjab Kings181/10

Innings 1