NigeriaversusZimbabwe

3 Sept 2025 · T20

Recorded result

Zimbabwe won by 10 wickets

Nigeria19.5 overs90/10 Zimbabwe14.2 overs93/0 High Performance Oval, Windhoek ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Zimbabwe more likely to win

45%Nigeria55%Zimbabwe

Why

In the last 2 T20 internationals between these sides, Zimbabwe won 2 and Nigeria won 0
On results in T20 internationals so far, Nigeria rate stronger than Zimbabwe (1,519 vs 1,492 on our results rating)

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Nigeria started on 45%; Nigeria batted first.

Nigeria’s chance of winning (%) · Zimbabwe is the rest

Nigeria's chances ranged from 0% to 46% during the match (Zimbabwe: 54% to 100%).

Biggest swings

1.5: J Nkomo to MK Amusa, MK Amusa out. Zimbabwe up from 60% to 67%.
2.4: N Sibanda to L Piety, L Piety out. Zimbabwe up from 68% to 75%.
8.2: F Chipare to V Igbinedion, V Igbinedion out. Zimbabwe up from 77% to 82%.

Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Nigeria90/10 Zimbabwe93/0

Innings 1

Nigeria

90/1019.5 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Nigeria batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
L Pietybowled · Nomvelo Sibanda 0 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Nomvelo Sibanda	0	10	0	0	0.00
MK Amusacaught · Modester Mupachikwa · Josephine Nkomo 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Modester Mupachikwa · b Josephine Nkomo	0	5	0	0	0.00
V Igbinedioncaught · Nomvelo Sibanda · Francisca Chipare 2 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Nomvelo Sibanda · b Francisca Chipare	10	17	2	0	58.82
S Sundaybowled · Josephine Nkomo 0 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Josephine Nkomo	1	3	0	0	33.33
OP Eguakunlbw · Loren Tshuma 1 fours · 0 sixes	lbw · b Loren Tshuma	11	29	1	0	37.93

Bowler	Overs	M	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Nomvelo Sibanda1 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	1	7	1	2.33	2
Josephine Nkomo1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	1	6	5	1.50	0
Francisca Chipare0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	3.5	0	15	1	3.91	1
L Mabhero0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	0	10	0	5.00	0
Loren Tshuma0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	26	1	6.50	0
Nyasha Gwanzura0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	0	21	1	7.00	1

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	0	0/0
2	0	0/1
3	3	3/2
4	5	8/3
5	4	12/3
6	5	17/3
7	4	21/3
8	2	23/3
9	1	24/4
10	8	32/4
11	2	34/4
12	9	43/4
13	3	46/4
14	7	53/5
15	3	56/6
16	5	61/6
17	18	79/6
18	5	84/6
19	1	85/9
20	5	90/10

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