Antigua and Barbuda FalconsversusTrinbago Knight Riders

2 Sept 2026 · T20

Queen's Park Oval, Port of Spain, Trinidad · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Antigua and Barbuda Falcons won by 8 runs

Antigua and Barbuda Falcons20.0 overs183/4 Trinbago Knight Riders20.0 overs175/7 Queen's Park Oval, Port of Spain, Trinidad ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Antigua and Barbuda Falcons started on 47%; Antigua and Barbuda Falcons batted first.

Antigua and Barbuda Falcons’s chance of winning (%) · Trinbago Knight Riders is the rest

Antigua and Barbuda Falcons's chances ranged from 37% to 100% during the match (Trinbago Knight Riders: 0% to 63%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 5.3: RRS Cornwall to N Pooran, N Pooran out. Antigua and Barbuda Falcons up from 75% to 89%.
2nd inns 10.3: SK Springer to JP Greaves, JP Greaves out. Antigua and Barbuda Falcons up from 74% to 90%.
2nd inns 15.1: SK Springer to J Da Silva, six by J Da Silva. Trinbago Knight Riders up from 23% to 36%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Antigua and Barbuda Falcons183/4 Trinbago Knight Riders175/7

Innings 1