Sri LankaversusBangladesh

9 Mar 2024 · T20

Sylhet International Cricket Stadium · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Sri Lanka won by 28 runs

Sri Lanka20.0 overs174/7 Bangladesh19.4 overs146/10 Sylhet International Cricket Stadium ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Bangladesh more likely to win

45%Sri Lanka55%Bangladesh

Why

Bangladesh are playing at home in Bangladesh
On results in T20 internationals so far, Bangladesh rate stronger than Sri Lanka (1,564 vs 1,538 on our results rating)
In the last 10 T20 internationals between these sides, Sri Lanka won 6 and Bangladesh won 4

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Sri Lanka started on 41%; Sri Lanka batted first.

Sri Lanka’s chance of winning (%) · Bangladesh is the rest

Sri Lanka's chances ranged from 35% to 100% during the match (Bangladesh: 0% to 65%).

Biggest swings

3.1: Taskin Ahmed to DM de Silva, DM de Silva out. Bangladesh up from 54% to 64%.
2nd inns 2.2: DM de Silva to Liton Das, Liton Das out. Sri Lanka up from 56% to 68%.
2nd inns 3.2: N Thushara to Nazmul Hossain Shanto, Nazmul Hossain Shanto out. Sri Lanka up from 70% to 81%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Sri Lanka174/7 Bangladesh146/10

Innings 1

Sri Lanka

174/720.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Sri Lanka batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Dhananjaya de Silvacaught · Soumya Sarkar · Taskin Ahmed 1 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Soumya Sarkar · b Taskin Ahmed	8	12	1	0	66.67
Kusal Mendiscaught · Soumya Sarkar · Taskin Ahmed 6 fours · 6 sixes	caught · Soumya Sarkar · b Taskin Ahmed	86	55	6	6	156.36
Kamindu Mendiscaught · Shariful Islam · Rishad Hossain 2 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Shariful Islam · b Rishad Hossain	12	12	2	0	100.00
Wanindu Hasarangacaught · Shariful Islam · Mustafizur Rahman 1 fours · 1 sixes	caught · Shariful Islam · b Mustafizur Rahman	15	13	1	1	115.38
Charith Asalankacaught · Mustafizur Rahman · Shariful Islam0 fours · 0 sixes

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Shariful Islam0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	28	1	7.00	2
Taskin Ahmed0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	25	2	6.25	0
Mahedi Hasan0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	22	0	7.33	0
Mustafizur Rahman0 maidens · 6 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	47	1	11.75	6
Rishad Hossain0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	35	2	8.75	0
Soumya Sarkar0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	11	0	11.00	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	2	2/0
2	6	8/0
3	10	18/0
4	12	30/1
5	5	35/1
6	6	41/1
7	3	44/1
8	10	54/2
9	9	63/2
10	18	81/2
11	9	90/2
12	11	101/2
13	10	111/3
14	14	125/3
15	10	135/4
16	3	138/4
17	2	140/5
18	13	153/6
19	7	160/6
20	14	174/7

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