LuxembourgversusSwitzerland

14 Sept 2025 · T20

Pierre Werner Cricket Ground, Walferdange · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Switzerland won by 8 wickets

Luxembourg20.0 overs81/8 Switzerland10.3 overs82/2 Pierre Werner Cricket Ground, Walferdange ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Switzerland more likely to win

30%Luxembourg70%Switzerland

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Switzerland rate stronger than Luxembourg (1,376 vs 1,235 on our results rating)
Luxembourg are playing at home in Luxembourg
In the last 1 T20 internationals between these sides, Switzerland won 1 and Luxembourg won 0

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Luxembourg started on 28%; Luxembourg batted first.

Luxembourg’s chance of winning (%) · Switzerland is the rest

Luxembourg's chances ranged from 0% to 31% during the match (Switzerland: 69% to 100%).

Biggest swings

2.2: M Parinitha to SH Lawlor, SH Lawlor out. Switzerland up from 70% to 77%.
7.2: Meghna Rajan to GEM Brealey, GEM Brealey out. Switzerland up from 71% to 75%.
12.6: S Dabholkatr to Jagrat Dubey, Jagrat Dubey out. Switzerland up from 82% to 85%.

Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Luxembourg81/8 Switzerland82/2

Innings 1

Luxembourg

81/820.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Luxembourg batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
SH Lawlorbowled · M Parinitha 1 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b M Parinitha	7	14	1	0	50.00
GEM Brealeybowled · Meghna Rajan 0 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Meghna Rajan	10	17	0	0	58.82
E Gebhardcaught · M Parinitha · Saranya Kotha 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · M Parinitha · b Saranya Kotha	15	32	0	0	46.88
Aarti Priyarun out · S Dabholkatr · Saranya Kotha 0 fours · 0 sixes	run out · S Dabholkatr	4	12	0	0	33.33
Jagrat Dubeycaught · Naina Saju · S Dabholkatr 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Naina Saju · b S Dabholkatr	1	8	0	0	12.50

Bowler	Overs	M	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD	NB
M Parinitha0 maidens · 5 wides · 1 no-balls	4.0	0	22	2	5.50	5	1
Naina Saju0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	0	11	1	3.67	3	0
S Dabholkatr0 maidens · 6 wides · 1 no-balls	3.0	0	13	1	4.33	6	1
D Medagoda0 maidens · 6 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	0	15	0	5.00	6	0
Meghna Rajan1 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	1	5	1	1.25	1	0
M Holmes0 maidens · 0 wides · 1 no-balls	1.0	0	6	0	6.00	0	1
Saranya Kotha0 maidens · 5 wides · 1 no-balls	2.0	0	6	1	3.00	5	1

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	5	5/0
2	5	10/0
3	5	15/1
4	2	17/1
5	10	27/1
6	8	35/1
7	5	40/1
8	2	42/2
9	5	47/2
10	1	48/2
11	6	54/2
12	3	57/3
13	4	61/4
14	3	64/5
15	3	67/5
16	3	70/5
17	5	75/5
18	0	75/5
19	2	77/7
20	4	81/8

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