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ICC Women's World Cup · 2025/26 · Women
26 Oct 2025 · ODI
Dr. Y.S. Rajasekhara Reddy ACA-VDCA Cricket Stadium, Visakhapatnam · Venue photographRecorded result
England more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
New Zealand started on 21%; New Zealand batted first.
New Zealand's chances ranged from 0% to 36% during the match (England: 64% to 100%).
Tested on every ball of 175 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.129, against 0.189 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Suzie Batescaught · EL Lamb · Linsey Smith2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · EL Lamb · b Linsey Smith | 10 | 16 | 2 | 0 | 62.50 |
| Georgia Plimmerlbw · Charlie Dean 7 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Charlie Dean | 43 | 57 | 7 | 0 | 75.44 |
 Amelia Kerrcaught · Charlie Dean · Alice Capsey5 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Charlie Dean · b Alice Capsey | 35 | 43 | 5 | 0 | 81.40 |
 Sophie Devinecaught · Amy Jones · Nat Sciver-Brunt1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Amy Jones · b Nat Sciver-Brunt | 23 |
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| 35 |
| 1 |
| 0 |
| 65.71 |
| Brooke Hallidaycaught · Sophia Dunkley · Sophie Ecclestone 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Sophia Dunkley · b Sophie Ecclestone | 4 | 14 | 0 | 0 | 28.57 |
|---|
 Maddy Greencaught and bowled · Alice Capsey2 fours · 0 sixes | caught and bowled · b Alice Capsey | 18 | 19 | 2 | 0 | 94.74 |
|---|
| Izzy Gazebowled · Linsey Smith 1 fours · 1 sixes | bowled · b Linsey Smith | 14 | 24 | 1 | 1 | 58.33 |
|---|
| Jess Kerrrun out · Amy Jones, Charlie Dean · Nat Sciver-Brunt 1 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Amy Jones, Charlie Dean | 10 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 83.33 |
|---|
| Rosemary Mairlbw · Nat Sciver-Brunt 0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Nat Sciver-Brunt | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
 Lea Tahuhucaught · Charlie Dean · Linsey Smith0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Charlie Dean · b Linsey Smith | 2 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 25.00 |
|---|
| Eden Carsonnot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 1* | 1 | 0 | 0 | 100.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 1 · legbyes: 0 · wides: 5 · noballs: 2 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Lauren Bell0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 6.0 | 0 | 35 | 0 | 5.83 | 1 | 0 |
| Linsey Smith0 maidens · 0 wides · 1 no-balls | 9.2 | 0 | 30 | 3 | 3.21 | 0 | 1 |
 Nat Sciver-Brunt0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 7.0 | 0 | 31 | 2 | 4.43 | 0 | 0 |
 Charlie Dean0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 7.0 | 0 | 21 | 1 | 3.00 | 0 | 0 |
 Alice Capsey0 maidens · 2 wides · 1 no-balls | 6.0 | 0 | 34 | 2 | 5.67 | 2 | 1 |
 Sophie Ecclestone0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 0.4 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 6.00 | 2 | 0 |
 Sophia Dunkley0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.2 | 0 | 12 | 0 | 5.14 | 0 | 0 |
1-21 (Suzie Bates, 5.3) · 2-89 (Amelia Kerr, 19.0) · 3-89 (Georgia Plimmer, 19.1) · 4-101 (Brooke Halliday, 22.4) · 5-128 (Maddy Green, 27.4) · 6-155 (Sophie Devine, 33.3) · 7-157 (Izzy Gaze, 34.5) · 8-162 (Rosemary Mair, 35.5) · 9-166 (Jess Kerr, 37.4) · 10-168 (Lea Tahuhu, 38.2)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 10 | 10/0 |
| 2 | 1 | 11/0 |
| 3 | 1 | 12/0 |
| 4 | 1 | 13/0 |
| 5 | 8 | 21/0 |
| 6 | 1 | 22/1 |
| 7 | 3 | 25/1 |
| 8 | 18 | 43/1 |
| 9 | 9 | 52/1 |
| 10 | 5 | 57/1 |
| 11 | 1 | 58/1 |
| 12 | 3 | 61/1 |
| 13 | 6 | 67/1 |
| 14 | 3 | 70/1 |
| 15 | 5 | 75/1 |
| 16 | 1 | 76/1 |
| 17 | 5 | 81/1 |
| 18 | 4 | 85/1 |
| 19 | 4 | 89/2 |
| 20 | 2 | 91/3 |
| 21 | 3 | 94/3 |
| 22 | 3 | 97/3 |
| 23 | 5 | 102/4 |
| 24 | 4 | 106/4 |
| 25 | 5 | 111/4 |
| 26 | 7 | 118/4 |
| 27 | 6 | 124/4 |
| 28 | 11 | 135/5 |
| 29 | 1 | 136/5 |
| 30 | 3 | 139/5 |
| 31 | 3 | 142/5 |
| 32 | 11 | 153/5 |
| 33 | 1 | 154/5 |
| 34 | 2 | 156/6 |
| 35 | 1 | 157/7 |
| 36 | 5 | 162/8 |
| 37 | 3 | 165/8 |
| 38 | 3 | 168/9 |
| 39 | 0 | 168/10 |
Heather Knight: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Charlie Dean: Mpk662 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Amy Jones: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Sophie Ecclestone: Harrias · CC BY-SA 4.0
Maddy Green: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Sophie Devine: YellowMonkey · CC BY-SA 3.0
Sophia Dunkley: Tukpuki · CC BY-SA 4.0
Nat Sciver-Brunt: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Amelia Kerr: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Tammy Beaumont: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Alice Capsey: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Danielle Wyatt: Harrias · CC BY-SA 3.0
Suzie Bates: paddynapper · CC BY-SA 2.0
Lauren Bell: Mpk662 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Lea Tahuhu: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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