Saudi ArabiaversusBahrain

16 Dec 2024 · T20

Recorded result

Bahrain won by 8 wickets

Saudi Arabia20.0 overs113/9 Bahrain15.2 overs119/2 ICC Academy, Dubai ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Bahrain more likely to win

46%Saudi Arabia54%Bahrain

Why

In the last 7 T20 internationals between these sides, Bahrain won 4 and Saudi Arabia won 3
On results in T20 internationals so far, Bahrain rate stronger than Saudi Arabia (1,516 vs 1,503 on our results rating)

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Saudi Arabia started on 44%; Saudi Arabia batted first.

Saudi Arabia’s chance of winning (%) · Bahrain is the rest

Saudi Arabia's chances ranged from 0% to 45% during the match (Bahrain: 55% to 100%).

Biggest swings

1.6: Imran Anwar to Faisal Khan, Faisal Khan out. Bahrain up from 55% to 65%.
2.6: Rizwan Butt to Usman Khalid, Usman Khalid out. Bahrain up from 67% to 76%.
2nd inns 2.6: Usman Najeeb to Haider Butt, four by Haider Butt. Bahrain up from 79% to 88%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Saudi Arabia113/9 Bahrain119/2

Innings 1

Saudi Arabia

113/920.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Saudi Arabia batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Usman Khalidcaught · Haider Butt · Rizwan Butt 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Haider Butt · b Rizwan Butt	2	10	0	0	20.00
Faisal Khancaught · Imran Khan (5) · Imran Anwar 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Imran Khan (5) · b Imran Anwar	6	7	0	0	85.71
Abdul Waheedlbw · Imran Khan (5) 0 fours · 0 sixes	lbw · b Imran Khan (5)	2	4	0	0	50.00
Waji Ul Hassancaught and bowled · Imran Khan (5) 2 fours · 2 sixes	caught and bowled · b Imran Khan (5)	35	35	2	2	100.00
Nawazish Akhtarcaught · Junaid Aziz · Abdul Majeed 1 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Junaid Aziz · b Abdul Majeed	14	20	1	0	70.00

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Rizwan Butt0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	23	2	5.75	0
Imran Anwar0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	18	1	4.50	0
Imran Khan (5)0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	20	3	5.00	3
Sarfaraz Ali0 maidens · 5 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	23	2	5.75	5
Abdul Majeed0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	25	1	6.25	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	3	3/0
2	5	8/1
3	2	10/2
4	9	19/2
5	5	24/3
6	1	25/3
7	5	30/3
8	4	34/3
9	2	36/3
10	2	38/3
11	8	46/3
12	8	54/4
13	10	64/4
14	6	70/4
15	9	79/5
16	2	81/7
17	8	89/7
18	10	99/7
19	10	109/8
20	4	113/9

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