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ICC Men's T20 World Cup Asia & EAP Qualifier · 2025/26 · Men
16 Oct 2025 · T20
Recorded result
Qatar more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Samoa started on 25%; Samoa batted first.
Samoa's chances ranged from 0% to 25% during the match (Qatar: 75% to 100%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sean Solialbw · Muhammad Asim 0 fours · 1 sixes | lbw · b Muhammad Asim | 15 | 18 | 0 | 1 | 83.33 |
| Darius Vissercaught · Shahzaib Jamil · Mirza Mohammed Baig 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Shahzaib Jamil · b Mirza Mohammed Baig | 1 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 14.29 |
| BF Mailatabowled · Daniel Louis 2 fours · 2 sixes | bowled · b Daniel Louis | 35 | 38 | 2 | 2 | 92.11 |
| SJ Frenchbowled · Daniel Louis 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Daniel Louis | 6 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 60.00 |
| CK Jasmatbowled · Muhammad Asim 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Muhammad Asim | 3 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
| SF Tiainot out0 fours · 3 sixes |
| not out |
| 30* |
| 18 |
| 0 |
| 3 |
| 166.67 |
| F Suluotocaught · Imal Liyanage · Mirza Mohammed Baig 2 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Imal Liyanage · b Mirza Mohammed Baig | 26 | 19 | 2 | 1 | 136.84 |
|---|
| S Solarun out · Muhammad Asim, Ikramullah Khan · Ikramullah Khan 0 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Muhammad Asim, Ikramullah Khan | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 33.33 |
|---|
| SM Nashcaught · Zubair Ali · Ikramullah Khan 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Zubair Ali · b Ikramullah Khan | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| D Finaurun out · Imal Liyanage, Shariq Munir · Ikramullah Khan 0 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Imal Liyanage, Shariq Munir | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 7 · wides: 1 · noballs: 1 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mirza Mohammed Baig0 maidens · 1 wides · 1 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 31 | 2 | 7.75 | 1 | 1 |
| Ikramullah Khan0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 8 | 1 | 2.67 | 0 | 0 |
| Muhammad Asim0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 21 | 2 | 5.25 | 0 | 0 |
| Mujeeb Ur Rehman0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 14 | 0 | 7.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Owais Ahmed0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 24 | 0 | 6.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Daniel Louis0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 21 | 2 | 7.00 | 0 | 0 |
1-5 (Darius Visser, 2.3) · 2-27 (Sean Solia, 6.0) · 3-52 (SJ French, 10.5) · 4-65 (BF Mailata, 13.0) · 5-65 (CK Jasmat, 13.1) · 6-104 (F Suluoto, 18.2) · 7-123 (S Sola, 19.2) · 8-126 (SM Nash, 19.5) · 9-126 (D Finau, 20.0)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | 1/0 |
| 2 | 2 | 3/0 |
| 3 | 2 | 5/1 |
| 4 | 3 | 8/1 |
| 5 | 11 | 19/1 |
| 6 | 8 | 27/2 |
| 7 | 6 | 33/2 |
| 8 | 2 | 35/2 |
| 9 | 9 | 44/2 |
| 10 | 5 | 49/2 |
| 11 | 3 | 52/3 |
| 12 | 3 | 55/3 |
| 13 | 10 | 65/4 |
| 14 | 1 | 66/5 |
| 15 | 8 | 74/5 |
| 16 | 5 | 79/5 |
| 17 | 10 | 89/5 |
| 18 | 14 | 103/5 |
| 19 | 18 | 121/6 |
| 20 | 5 | 126/9 |
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.