Lucknow Super GiantsversusMumbai Indians

4 Apr 2025 · T20

Ekana Cricket Stadium, Lucknow · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Lucknow Super Giants won by 12 runs

Lucknow Super Giants20.0 overs203/8 Mumbai Indians20.0 overs191/5 Ekana Cricket Stadium, Lucknow ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Lucknow Super Giants started on 56%; Lucknow Super Giants batted first.

Lucknow Super Giants’s chance of winning (%) · Mumbai Indians is the rest

Lucknow Super Giants's chances ranged from 57% to 98% during the match (Mumbai Indians: 2% to 44%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 8.1: DS Rathi to Naman Dhir, Naman Dhir out. Lucknow Super Giants up from 63% to 76%.
2nd inns 16.1: Avesh Khan to SA Yadav, SA Yadav out. Lucknow Super Giants up from 61% to 74%.
2nd inns 19.1: Avesh Khan to HH Pandya, six by HH Pandya. Mumbai Indians up from 5% to 13%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Lucknow Super Giants203/8 Mumbai Indians191/5

Innings 1