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West Indies Women tour of Sri Lanka · 2024 · Women
15 Jun 2024 · ODI
Recorded result
West Indies more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
West Indies started on 55%; West Indies batted first.
West Indies's chances ranged from 0% to 69% during the match (Sri Lanka: 31% to 100%).
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Hayley Matthewscaught · Harshitha Madavi · Sugandika Kumari6 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Harshitha Madavi · b Sugandika Kumari | 38 | 53 | 6 | 0 | 71.70 |
| Rashada Williamscaught · Anushka Sanjeewani · Achini Kulasuriya 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Anushka Sanjeewani · b Achini Kulasuriya | 6 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 85.71 |
 Shemaine Campbellelbw · Sugandika Kumari4 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Sugandika Kumari | 27 | 51 | 4 | 0 | 52.94 |
 Stafanie Taylorrun out · S Nisansala, Chamari Atapattu · Chamari Atapattu3 fours · 0 sixes |
Tested on every ball of 175 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.129, against 0.189 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| run out · S Nisansala, Chamari Atapattu |
| 33 |
| 56 |
| 3 |
| 0 |
| 58.93 |
| Chedean Nationcaught · Anushka Sanjeewani · Kavisha Dilhari 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Anushka Sanjeewani · b Kavisha Dilhari | 6 | 18 | 0 | 0 | 33.33 |
|---|
 Chinelle Henrycaught · Nilakshi de Silva · Kavisha Dilhari0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Nilakshi de Silva · b Kavisha Dilhari | 13 | 21 | 0 | 0 | 61.90 |
|---|
| Aaliyah Alleynelbw · Chamari Atapattu 2 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Chamari Atapattu | 14 | 19 | 2 | 0 | 73.68 |
|---|
 Afy Fletcherrun out · Harshitha Madavi · Sugandika Kumari0 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Harshitha Madavi | 5 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 62.50 |
|---|
| Zaida Jamescaught · Harshitha Madavi · Sugandika Kumari 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Harshitha Madavi · b Sugandika Kumari | 7 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 58.33 |
|---|
 Karishma Ramharacknot out3 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 14* | 27 | 3 | 0 | 51.85 |
|---|
 Shamilia Connellbowled · Kavisha Dilhari1 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Kavisha Dilhari | 9 | 13 | 1 | 0 | 69.23 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 3 · wides: 18 · noballs: 2 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Achini Kulasuriya2 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 8.0 | 2 | 30 | 1 | 3.75 | 1 | 0 |
 Udeshika Prabodhani0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 7.0 | 0 | 25 | 0 | 3.57 | 0 | 0 |
 Sugandika Kumari1 maidens · 6 wides · 1 no-balls | 9.0 | 1 | 30 | 3 | 3.33 | 6 | 1 |
| Inoka Ranaweera0 maidens · 0 wides · 1 no-balls | 7.0 | 0 | 45 | 0 | 6.43 | 0 | 1 |
 Chamari Atapattu1 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls | 7.0 | 1 | 21 | 1 | 3.00 | 3 | 0 |
 Kavisha Dilhari0 maidens · 8 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.1 | 0 | 41 | 3 | 4.47 | 8 | 0 |
1-7 (Rashada Williams, 2.3) · 2-75 (Hayley Matthews, 18.1) · 3-76 (Shemaine Campbelle, 18.4) · 4-109 (Chedean Nation, 26.4) · 5-127 (Chinelle Henry, 32.1) · 6-149 (Aaliyah Alleyne, 37.2) · 7-149 (Stafanie Taylor, 37.4) · 8-170 (Zaida James, 40.4) · 9-170 (Afy Fletcher, 41.0) · 10-195 (Shamilia Connell, 47.1)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | 0/0 |
| 2 | 3 | 3/0 |
| 3 | 4 | 7/1 |
| 4 | 4 | 11/1 |
| 5 | 6 | 17/1 |
| 6 | 3 | 20/1 |
| 7 | 2 | 22/1 |
| 8 | 10 | 32/1 |
| 9 | 3 | 35/1 |
| 10 | 0 | 35/1 |
| 11 | 1 | 36/1 |
| 12 | 1 | 37/1 |
| 13 | 6 | 43/1 |
| 14 | 4 | 47/1 |
| 15 | 7 | 54/1 |
| 16 | 5 | 59/1 |
| 17 | 15 | 74/1 |
| 18 | 1 | 75/1 |
| 19 | 1 | 76/3 |
| 20 | 8 | 84/3 |
| 21 | 2 | 86/3 |
| 22 | 5 | 91/3 |
| 23 | 3 | 94/3 |
| 24 | 1 | 95/3 |
| 25 | 8 | 103/3 |
| 26 | 3 | 106/3 |
| 27 | 6 | 112/4 |
| 28 | 1 | 113/4 |
| 29 | 5 | 118/4 |
| 30 | 3 | 121/4 |
| 31 | 5 | 126/4 |
| 32 | 1 | 127/4 |
| 33 | 2 | 129/5 |
| 34 | 8 | 137/5 |
| 35 | 7 | 144/5 |
| 36 | 1 | 145/5 |
| 37 | 3 | 148/5 |
| 38 | 3 | 151/7 |
| 39 | 7 | 158/7 |
| 40 | 4 | 162/7 |
| 41 | 8 | 170/9 |
| 42 | 0 | 170/9 |
| 43 | 4 | 174/9 |
| 44 | 4 | 178/9 |
| 45 | 7 | 185/9 |
| 46 | 2 | 187/9 |
| 47 | 8 | 195/9 |
| 48 | 0 | 195/10 |
Chamari Atapattu: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Nilakshi de Silva: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Hayley Matthews: NAPARAZZI · CC BY-SA 2.0
Udeshika Prabodhani: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Stafanie Taylor: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Hasini Perera: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Karishma Ramharack: SportsMax TV · CC BY 3.0
Sugandika Kumari: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Shemaine Campbelle: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Harshitha Madavi: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Kavisha Dilhari: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Chinelle Henry: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Anushka Sanjeewani: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Afy Fletcher: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Shamilia Connell: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Achini Kulasuriya: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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