Hobart HurricanesversusSydney Sixers

1 Jan 2025 · T20

Bellerive Oval, Hobart · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Hobart Hurricanes won by 50 runs

Hobart Hurricanes20.0 overs161/6 Sydney Sixers19.3 overs111/10 Bellerive Oval, Hobart ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Hobart Hurricanes started on 40%; Hobart Hurricanes batted first.

Hobart Hurricanes’s chance of winning (%) · Sydney Sixers is the rest

Hobart Hurricanes's chances ranged from 35% to 100% during the match (Sydney Sixers: 0% to 65%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 3.4: CJ Jordan to JM Vince, JM Vince out. Hobart Hurricanes up from 47% to 61%.
2nd inns 4.4: Waqar Salamkheil to KR Patterson, KR Patterson out. Hobart Hurricanes up from 62% to 76%.
2nd inns 9.5: B Stanlake to MC Henriques, MC Henriques out. Hobart Hurricanes up from 65% to 79%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Hobart Hurricanes161/6 Sydney Sixers111/10

Innings 1