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Photo: Marc Dalmulder from Hamlyn Terrace, Australia
Original photograph ↗ · CC BY 2.0
Resized and converted to WebP; original framing preserved.
Historical photograph; current appearance and conditions may differ.
West Indies tour of Australia · 2023/24 · Men
4 Feb 2024 · ODI
Sydney Cricket Ground · Venue photographRecorded result
Australia more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Australia started on 85%; Australia batted first.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Fraser-McGurkcaught · Shai Hope · Alzarri Joseph 1 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Shai Hope · b Alzarri Joseph | 10 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 200.00 |
 Josh Ingliscaught · Roston Chase · Alzarri Joseph1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Roston Chase · b Alzarri Joseph | 9 | 11 | 1 | 0 | 81.82 |
 Cameron Greencaught · Matthew Forde · Oshane Thomas5 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Matthew Forde · b Oshane Thomas | 33 | 41 | 5 | 1 | 80.49 |
 Steve Smithbowled · Matthew Forde1 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Matthew Forde |
Australia's chances ranged from 63% to 100% during the match (West Indies: 0% to 37%).
Tested on every ball of 247 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.171, against 0.234 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| 10 |
| 1 |
| 0 |
| 50.00 |
 Marnus Labuschagnecaught · Justin Greaves · Gudakesh Motie3 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Justin Greaves · b Gudakesh Motie | 26 | 33 | 3 | 1 | 78.79 |
|---|
| Matthew Shortcaught and bowled · Gudakesh Motie 2 fours · 1 sixes | caught and bowled · b Gudakesh Motie | 41 | 55 | 2 | 1 | 74.55 |
|---|
| Aaron Hardiecaught · Matthew Forde · Gudakesh Motie 3 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Matthew Forde · b Gudakesh Motie | 26 | 36 | 3 | 0 | 72.22 |
|---|
 Sean Abbottbowled · Romario Shepherd1 fours · 4 sixes | bowled · b Romario Shepherd | 69 | 63 | 1 | 4 | 109.52 |
|---|
 Will Sutherlandcaught · Justin Greaves · Romario Shepherd0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Justin Greaves · b Romario Shepherd | 18 | 33 | 0 | 0 | 54.55 |
|---|
 Adam Zampanot out0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 8* | 11 | 0 | 0 | 72.73 |
|---|
 Josh Hazlewoodnot out0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 4* | 4 | 0 | 0 | 100.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 1 · wides: 6 · noballs: 2 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alzarri Joseph0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.0 | 0 | 74 | 2 | 8.22 | 2 | 0 |
| Matthew Forde1 maidens · 4 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.0 | 1 | 32 | 1 | 3.56 | 4 | 0 |
| Romario Shepherd0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 8.0 | 0 | 50 | 2 | 6.25 | 0 | 0 |
| Oshane Thomas0 maidens · 0 wides · 2 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 33 | 1 | 8.25 | 0 | 2 |
| Gudakesh Motie0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 28 | 3 | 2.80 | 0 | 0 |
 Roston Chase0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 40 | 0 | 4.00 | 0 | 0 |
1-10 (Jake Fraser-McGurk, 0.5) · 2-21 (Josh Inglis, 3.0) · 3-50 (Steve Smith, 7.1) · 4-89 (Cameron Green, 15.5) · 5-91 (Marnus Labuschagne, 16.4) · 6-142 (Aaron Hardie, 28.1) · 7-167 (Matthew Short, 34.5) · 8-224 (Will Sutherland, 45.4) · 9-251 (Sean Abbott, 48.3)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 10 | 10/1 |
| 2 | 5 | 15/1 |
| 3 | 6 | 21/2 |
| 4 | 0 | 21/2 |
| 5 | 14 | 35/2 |
| 6 | 4 | 39/2 |
| 7 | 11 | 50/2 |
| 8 | 1 | 51/3 |
| 9 | 7 | 58/3 |
| 10 | 3 | 61/3 |
| 11 | 1 | 62/3 |
| 12 | 5 | 67/3 |
| 13 | 2 | 69/3 |
| 14 | 15 | 84/3 |
| 15 | 2 | 86/3 |
| 16 | 5 | 91/4 |
| 17 | 2 | 93/5 |
| 18 | 2 | 95/5 |
| 19 | 2 | 97/5 |
| 20 | 11 | 108/5 |
| 21 | 1 | 109/5 |
| 22 | 2 | 111/5 |
| 23 | 3 | 114/5 |
| 24 | 12 | 126/5 |
| 25 | 4 | 130/5 |
| 26 | 7 | 137/5 |
| 27 | 3 | 140/5 |
| 28 | 2 | 142/5 |
| 29 | 2 | 144/6 |
| 30 | 6 | 150/6 |
| 31 | 2 | 152/6 |
| 32 | 3 | 155/6 |
| 33 | 7 | 162/6 |
| 34 | 3 | 165/6 |
| 35 | 2 | 167/7 |
| 36 | 3 | 170/7 |
| 37 | 6 | 176/7 |
| 38 | 4 | 180/7 |
| 39 | 4 | 184/7 |
| 40 | 5 | 189/7 |
| 41 | 5 | 194/7 |
| 42 | 4 | 198/7 |
| 43 | 7 | 205/7 |
| 44 | 4 | 209/7 |
| 45 | 4 | 213/7 |
| 46 | 13 | 226/8 |
| 47 | 7 | 233/8 |
| 48 | 6 | 239/8 |
| 49 | 15 | 254/9 |
| 50 | 4 | 258/9 |
Josh Hazlewood: EGilham · CC BY-SA 4.0
Roston Chase: Calistemon · CC BY-SA 4.0
Will Sutherland: @evermorestation on Twitter · CC BY-SA 4.0
Marnus Labuschagne: Ben Sutherland from Crystal Palace, London, UK · CC BY 2.0
Adam Zampa: Storm machine · CC BY-SA 4.0
Steve Smith: NAPARAZZI · CC BY-SA 2.0
Josh Inglis: Prime Video AU & NZ · CC BY 3.0
Shai Hope: CRICKETNEXT · CC BY 3.0
Cameron Green: Calistemon · CC BY-SA 4.0
Sean Abbott: Naparazzi · CC BY-SA 2.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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