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Photo: Yorkspotter
Original photograph ↗ · CC BY-SA 4.0
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India tour of England · 2026 · Men
19 Jul 2026 · ODI
Lord's · Venue photographIndia more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
England started on 34%; England batted first.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Ben Duckettcaught and bowled · Prince Yadav18 fours · 1 sixes | caught and bowled · b Prince Yadav | 141 | 135 | 18 | 1 | 104.44 |
| Jacob Bethellcaught · Rohit Sharma · Prasidh Krishna 11 fours · 2 sixes | caught · Rohit Sharma · b Prasidh Krishna | 91 | 93 | 11 | 2 | 97.85 |
 Joe Rootnot out9 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 74* | 48 | 9 | 0 | 154.17 |
 Harry Brookcaught · Virat Kohli · Prasidh Krishna0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Virat Kohli · b Prasidh Krishna | 14 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 116.67 |
England's chances ranged from 34% to 100% during the match (India: 0% to 66%).
Tested on every ball of 247 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.171, against 0.234 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
 Jos Buttlernot out4 fours · 3 sixes | not out | 41* | 13 | 4 | 3 | 315.38 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 9 · wides: 16 · noballs: 1 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Arshdeep Singh0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 72 | 0 | 7.20 | 2 | 0 |
| Prasidh Krishna2 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 2 | 69 | 2 | 6.90 | 2 | 0 |
| Prince Yadav0 maidens · 11 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 79 | 1 | 7.90 | 11 | 0 |
| Gurnoor Brar0 maidens · 1 wides · 1 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 97 | 0 | 9.70 | 1 | 1 |
 Axar Patel0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 61 | 0 | 6.10 | 0 | 0 |
1-192 (Jacob Bethell, 30.1) · 2-293 (Ben Duckett, 43.3) · 3-324 (Harry Brook, 46.5)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | 3/0 |
| 2 | 13 | 16/0 |
| 3 | 11 | 27/0 |
| 4 | 4 | 31/0 |
| 5 | 6 | 37/0 |
| 6 | 0 | 37/0 |
| 7 | 11 | 48/0 |
| 8 | 0 | 48/0 |
| 9 | 5 | 53/0 |
| 10 | 5 | 58/0 |
| 11 | 12 | 70/0 |
| 12 | 9 | 79/0 |
| 13 | 4 | 83/0 |
| 14 | 3 | 86/0 |
| 15 | 10 | 96/0 |
| 16 | 5 | 101/0 |
| 17 | 6 | 107/0 |
| 18 | 9 | 116/0 |
| 19 | 7 | 123/0 |
| 20 | 2 | 125/0 |
| 21 | 4 | 129/0 |
| 22 | 8 | 137/0 |
| 23 | 11 | 148/0 |
| 24 | 8 | 156/0 |
| 25 | 7 | 163/0 |
| 26 | 1 | 164/0 |
| 27 | 4 | 168/0 |
| 28 | 7 | 175/0 |
| 29 | 10 | 185/0 |
| 30 | 7 | 192/0 |
| 31 | 1 | 193/1 |
| 32 | 9 | 202/1 |
| 33 | 4 | 206/1 |
| 34 | 6 | 212/1 |
| 35 | 4 | 216/1 |
| 36 | 10 | 226/1 |
| 37 | 5 | 231/1 |
| 38 | 19 | 250/1 |
| 39 | 4 | 254/1 |
| 40 | 7 | 261/1 |
| 41 | 9 | 270/1 |
| 42 | 8 | 278/1 |
| 43 | 13 | 291/1 |
| 44 | 6 | 297/2 |
| 45 | 8 | 305/2 |
| 46 | 10 | 315/2 |
| 47 | 10 | 325/3 |
| 48 | 23 | 348/3 |
| 49 | 23 | 371/3 |
| 50 | 16 | 387/3 |
Harry Brook: Dave Morton · Public domain
Jofra Archer: Ben Sutherland from Crystal Palace, London, UK · CC BY 2.0
Ben Duckett: Charltonkyle · CC BY-SA 4.0
Axar Patel: Anand Anil · CC BY-SA 4.0
Jos Buttler: Ytfc23 · CC BY-SA 4.0
KL Rahul: NAPARAZZI · CC BY-SA 2.0
Sam Curran: Number 10 · CC BY 2.0
Rohit Sharma: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Joe Root: Dave Morton · Public domain
Ishan Kishan: Tata Ipl 2022 · CC BY 3.0
Will Jacks: Dave Morton · Public domain
Adil Rashid: Harrias · CC BY-SA 3.0
Shubman Gill: Bollywood Hungama · CC BY 3.0
Arshdeep Singh: Prime Minister's Office · GODL-India
Virat Kohli: Prime Minister's Office · GODL-India
Shreyas Iyer: 247 Entertainment · CC BY 3.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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