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South Africa tour of West Indies · 2024 · Men
23 Aug 2024 · T20
Brian Lara Stadium, Tarouba, Trinidad · Venue photographRecorded result
West Indies more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
South Africa started on 37%; South Africa batted first.
South Africa's chances ranged from 0% to 70% during the match (West Indies: 30% to 100%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Ryan Rickeltoncaught · Nicolas Pooran · Matthew Forde0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Nicolas Pooran · b Matthew Forde | 4 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 80.00 |
 Reeza Hendrickscaught · Akeal Hosein · Shamar Joseph0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Akeal Hosein · b Shamar Joseph | 4 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 44.44 |
 Aiden Markramcaught · Gudakesh Motie · Matthew Forde2 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Gudakesh Motie · b Matthew Forde | 14 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 140.00 |
| Tristan Stubbscaught · Rovman Powell · Romario Shepherd 8 fours · 3 sixes |
| 76 |
| 42 |
| 8 |
| 3 |
| 180.95 |
| HE van der Dussencaught · Nicolas Pooran · Shamar Joseph 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Nicolas Pooran · b Shamar Joseph | 5 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 55.56 |
|---|
| Donavon Ferreiracaught · Gudakesh Motie · Akeal Hosein 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Gudakesh Motie · b Akeal Hosein | 8 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 100.00 |
|---|
| Patrick Krugercaught · Alick Athanaze · Matthew Forde 4 fours · 2 sixes | caught · Alick Athanaze · b Matthew Forde | 44 | 32 | 4 | 2 | 137.50 |
|---|
| Bjorn Fortuinnot out 2 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 11* | 8 | 2 | 0 | 137.50 |
|---|
| Kwena Maphakanot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 1* | 1 | 0 | 0 | 100.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 1 · wides: 2 · noballs: 4 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Akeal Hosein0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 22 | 1 | 5.50 | 0 | 0 |
| Matthew Forde0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 27 | 3 | 6.75 | 0 | 0 |
| Shamar Joseph0 maidens · 0 wides · 4 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 40 | 2 | 10.00 | 0 | 4 |
| Romario Shepherd0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 39 | 1 | 13.00 | 1 | 0 |
| Gudakesh Motie0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 31 | 0 | 7.75 | 0 | 0 |
 Roston Chase0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 14 | 0 | 14.00 | 1 | 0 |
1-5 (Ryan Rickelton, 1.2) · 2-23 (Aiden Markram, 3.5) · 3-23 (Reeza Hendricks, 4.1) · 4-33 (HE van der Dussen, 6.1) · 5-42 (Donavon Ferreira, 8.0) · 6-113 (Patrick Kruger, 16.1) · 7-173 (Tristan Stubbs, 19.5)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | 3/0 |
| 2 | 6 | 9/1 |
| 3 | 11 | 20/1 |
| 4 | 3 | 23/2 |
| 5 | 3 | 26/3 |
| 6 | 7 | 33/3 |
| 7 | 5 | 38/4 |
| 8 | 4 | 42/5 |
| 9 | 5 | 47/5 |
| 10 | 4 | 51/5 |
| 11 | 4 | 55/5 |
| 12 | 14 | 69/5 |
| 13 | 10 | 79/5 |
| 14 | 16 | 95/5 |
| 15 | 8 | 103/5 |
| 16 | 10 | 113/5 |
| 17 | 12 | 125/6 |
| 18 | 7 | 132/6 |
| 19 | 24 | 156/6 |
| 20 | 18 | 174/7 |
Roston Chase: Calistemon · CC BY-SA 4.0
Ryan Rickelton: Dave Morton · Public domain
Aiden Markram: Marcel Sigg · CC0
Shai Hope: CRICKETNEXT · CC BY 3.0
Reeza Hendricks: NAPARAZZI · CC BY-SA 2.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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