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Photo: RIDHVAN SHARMA
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Ireland Women tour of Zimbabwe · 2023/24 · Women
23 Jan 2024 · ODI
Harare Sports Club · Venue photographRecorded result
Too close to call
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Ireland started on 46%; Ireland batted first.
Ireland's chances ranged from 18% to 100% during the match (Zimbabwe: 0% to 82%).
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leah Paulcaught · Chiedza Dhururu · Kelis Ndhlovu 3 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Chiedza Dhururu · b Kelis Ndhlovu | 27 | 46 | 3 | 0 | 58.70 |
| Gaby Lewiscaught · Chiedza Dhururu · M Mavunga 2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Chiedza Dhururu · b M Mavunga | 8 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 160.00 |
| Amy Hunterlbw · Nomvelo Sibanda 0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Nomvelo Sibanda | 1 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 11.11 |
| Orla Prendergastcaught · Nomvelo Sibanda · L Mabhero 4 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Nomvelo Sibanda · b L Mabhero | 41 | 67 | 4 | 0 | 61.19 |
| Laura Delanybowled · L Mabhero 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b L Mabhero | 12 | 22 | 0 | 0 | 54.55 |
Tested on every ball of 175 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.129, against 0.189 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| bowled · b Loren Tshuma |
| 5 |
| 7 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 71.43 |
| Arlene Kellylbw · Loren Tshuma 1 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Loren Tshuma | 11 | 17 | 1 | 0 | 64.71 |
|---|
| Georgina Dempseycaught · L Mabhero · Precious Marange 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · L Mabhero · b Precious Marange | 16 | 46 | 0 | 0 | 34.78 |
|---|
| Ava Canningbowled · Precious Marange 2 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Precious Marange | 15 | 28 | 2 | 0 | 53.57 |
|---|
| Cara Murraynot out 1 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 12* | 22 | 1 | 0 | 54.55 |
|---|
| Jane Maguirelbw · Ashley Ndiraya 0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Ashley Ndiraya | 10 | 21 | 0 | 0 | 47.62 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 6 · legbyes: 4 · wides: 11 · noballs: 1 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nomvelo Sibanda0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 5.0 | 0 | 16 | 1 | 3.20 | 1 | 0 |
| M Mavunga0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 5.0 | 0 | 24 | 1 | 4.80 | 0 | 0 |
 Precious Marange1 maidens · 7 wides · 1 no-balls | 10.0 | 1 | 35 | 2 | 3.50 | 7 | 1 |
| Kelis Ndhlovu2 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 2 | 34 | 1 | 3.40 | 2 | 0 |
| L Mabhero0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 8.0 | 0 | 31 | 2 | 3.88 | 0 | 0 |
| Loren Tshuma0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.0 | 0 | 27 | 2 | 3.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Ashley Ndiraya0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 2.57 | 1 | 0 |
1-14 (Gaby Lewis, 1.5) · 2-17 (Amy Hunter, 4.2) · 3-63 (Leah Paul, 15.4) · 4-86 (Laura Delany, 23.0) · 5-103 (Rebecca Stokell, 25.4) · 6-103 (Orla Prendergast, 26.2) · 7-123 (Arlene Kelly, 32.0) · 8-154 (Georgina Dempsey, 40.2) · 9-159 (Ava Canning, 42.3) · 10-180 (Jane Maguire, 48.1)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | 5/0 |
| 2 | 9 | 14/1 |
| 3 | 2 | 16/1 |
| 4 | 1 | 17/1 |
| 5 | 2 | 19/2 |
| 6 | 7 | 26/2 |
| 7 | 5 | 31/2 |
| 8 | 7 | 38/2 |
| 9 | 3 | 41/2 |
| 10 | 2 | 43/2 |
| 11 | 4 | 47/2 |
| 12 | 0 | 47/2 |
| 13 | 3 | 50/2 |
| 14 | 2 | 52/2 |
| 15 | 4 | 56/2 |
| 16 | 7 | 63/3 |
| 17 | 5 | 68/3 |
| 18 | 3 | 71/3 |
| 19 | 0 | 71/3 |
| 20 | 3 | 74/3 |
| 21 | 1 | 75/3 |
| 22 | 9 | 84/3 |
| 23 | 2 | 86/4 |
| 24 | 4 | 90/4 |
| 25 | 10 | 100/4 |
| 26 | 3 | 103/5 |
| 27 | 2 | 105/6 |
| 28 | 1 | 106/6 |
| 29 | 4 | 110/6 |
| 30 | 3 | 113/6 |
| 31 | 4 | 117/6 |
| 32 | 6 | 123/7 |
| 33 | 5 | 128/7 |
| 34 | 2 | 130/7 |
| 35 | 5 | 135/7 |
| 36 | 2 | 137/7 |
| 37 | 3 | 140/7 |
| 38 | 7 | 147/7 |
| 39 | 3 | 150/7 |
| 40 | 1 | 151/7 |
| 41 | 6 | 157/8 |
| 42 | 1 | 158/8 |
| 43 | 2 | 160/9 |
| 44 | 3 | 163/9 |
| 45 | 7 | 170/9 |
| 46 | 1 | 171/9 |
| 47 | 3 | 174/9 |
| 48 | 6 | 180/9 |
| 49 | 0 | 180/10 |
Precious Marange: Foreign and Commonwealth Office · CC BY 2.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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