San Francisco UnicornsversusWashington Freedom

12 Jun 2025 · T20

Oakland Coliseum, Oakland · Venue photograph

Recorded result

San Francisco Unicorns won by 123 runs

San Francisco Unicorns20.0 overs269/5 Washington Freedom13.1 overs146/10 Oakland Coliseum, Oakland ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

San Francisco Unicorns started on 45%; San Francisco Unicorns batted first.

San Francisco Unicorns’s chance of winning (%) · Washington Freedom is the rest

San Francisco Unicorns's chances ranged from 44% to 100% during the match (Washington Freedom: 0% to 56%).

Biggest swings

0.5: BV Sears to FH Allen, six by FH Allen. San Francisco Unicorns up from 44% to 50%.
2.2: J Edwards to TL Seifert, TL Seifert out. Washington Freedom up from 35% to 45%.
5.2: SN Netravalkar to J Fraser-McGurk, J Fraser-McGurk out. Washington Freedom up from 25% to 32%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

San Francisco Unicorns269/5 Washington Freedom146/10

Innings 1