St Kitts and Nevis PatriotsversusBarbados Royals

21 Aug 2025 · T20

Warner Park, St Kitts · Venue photograph

Recorded result

St Kitts and Nevis Patriots won by 12 runs

St Kitts and Nevis Patriots20.0 overs174/8 Barbados Royals18.2 overs162/10 Warner Park, St Kitts ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

St Kitts and Nevis Patriots started on 38%; St Kitts and Nevis Patriots batted first.

St Kitts and Nevis Patriots’s chance of winning (%) · Barbados Royals is the rest

St Kitts and Nevis Patriots's chances ranged from 16% to 96% during the match (Barbados Royals: 4% to 84%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 14.3: Naseem Shah to R Powell, R Powell out. St Kitts and Nevis Patriots up from 29% to 56%.
2nd inns 16.3: JO Holder to NRJ Young, NRJ Young out. St Kitts and Nevis Patriots up from 39% to 73%.
2nd inns 18.2: JO Holder to JA Warrican, JA Warrican out. St Kitts and Nevis Patriots up from 64% to 100%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

St Kitts and Nevis Patriots174/8 Barbados Royals162/10

Innings 1