MexicoversusSuriname

15 Mar 2026 · T20

Recorded result

Suriname won by 4 wickets

Mexico20.0 overs126/9 Suriname20.0 overs127/6 Jimmy Powell Oval, Cayman Islands ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Mexico more likely to win

70%Mexico30%Suriname

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Mexico rate stronger than Suriname (1,306 vs 1,226 on our results rating)
In the last 2 T20 internationals between these sides, Mexico won 2 and Suriname won 0

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Mexico started on 67%; Mexico batted first.

Mexico’s chance of winning (%) · Suriname is the rest

Mexico's chances ranged from 11% to 80% during the match (Suriname: 20% to 89%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 18.5: Shoaib Rafiq to XSD Smith, XSD Smith out. Mexico up from 36% to 58%.
2nd inns 19.4: Amir Butt to G Singh, four by G Singh. Suriname up from 30% to 65%.
2nd inns 19.6: Amir Butt to G Singh, 1 run to G Singh. Suriname up from 79% to 100%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Mexico126/9 Suriname127/6

Innings 1

Mexico

126/920.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Mexico batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
J Byrappalbw · XSD Smith 0 fours · 1 sixes	lbw · b XSD Smith	27	22	0	1	122.73
KB Patilcaught · S Bharratt · Gavin Singh 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · S Bharratt · b Gavin Singh	3	7	0	0	42.86
S Kocharstumped · J Perry · Arun Gokoel 2 fours · 1 sixes	stumped · J Perry · b Arun Gokoel	26	25	2	1	104.00
Amir Buttcaught · XSD Smith · Arun Gokoel 0 fours · 2 sixes	caught · XSD Smith · b Arun Gokoel	25	18	0	2	138.89
D Pandabowled · XSD Smith 1 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b XSD Smith	9	8	1	0	112.50
D Ebersohnbowled · XSD Smith0 fours · 0 sixes

Bowler	Overs	M	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD	NB
Troy Dudnath0 maidens · 3 wides · 1 no-balls	3.0	0	24	0	8.00	3	1
Gavin Singh1 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	1	26	1	6.50	1	0
Arun Gokoel0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	25	3	6.25	0	0
XSD Smith0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	15	3	3.75	0	0
YP Dayal0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	0	18	0	9.00	0	0
Vishwar Shaw0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	0	18	1	6.00	0	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	6	6/0
2	0	6/1
3	6	12/1
4	5	17/1
5	12	29/1
6	11	40/1
7	3	43/1
8	10	53/1
9	11	64/2
10	7	71/3
11	11	82/3
12	4	86/3
13	9	95/4
14	2	97/5
15	3	100/5
16	2	102/6
17	8	110/6
18	7	117/6
19	2	119/8
20	7	126/9

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