**Saxton Oval, Nelson**
Photo: Nelsonpubliclibraries
Original photograph ↗ · CC BY-SA 3.0
Resized and converted to WebP; original framing preserved.
Historical photograph; current appearance and conditions may differ.

Super Smash · 2025/26 · Men

Central DistrictsversusCanterbury

3 Jan 2026 · T20

Saxton Oval, Nelson · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Canterbury won by 9 wickets

Central Districts20.0 overs139/6 Canterbury12.4 overs145/1 Saxton Oval, Nelson ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Central Districts started on 51%; Central Districts batted first.

Central Districts’s chance of winning (%) · Canterbury is the rest

Central Districts's chances ranged from 0% to 66% during the match (Canterbury: 34% to 100%).

Biggest swings

1.6: FW Sheat to WA Young, WA Young out. Canterbury up from 49% to 61%.
7.3: CE McConchie to D Cleaver, D Cleaver out. Canterbury up from 37% to 45%.
9.3: CE McConchie to D Foxcroft, D Foxcroft out. Canterbury up from 44% to 52%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Central Districts139/6 Canterbury145/1

Innings 1