Hobart HurricanesversusAdelaide Strikers

27 Dec 2024 · T20

Adelaide Oval · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Hobart Hurricanes won by 11 runs

Hobart Hurricanes20.0 overs214/5 Adelaide Strikers20.0 overs203/6 Adelaide Oval ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Hobart Hurricanes started on 46%; Hobart Hurricanes batted first.

Hobart Hurricanes’s chance of winning (%) · Adelaide Strikers is the rest

Hobart Hurricanes's chances ranged from 40% to 100% during the match (Adelaide Strikers: 0% to 60%).

Biggest swings

0.4: MW Short to MJ Owen, MJ Owen out. Adelaide Strikers up from 47% to 60%.
2nd inns 6.2: B Stanlake to DJM Short, DJM Short out. Hobart Hurricanes up from 55% to 68%.
2nd inns 9.5: Nikhil Chaudhary to CA Lynn, CA Lynn out. Hobart Hurricanes up from 55% to 68%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Hobart Hurricanes214/5 Adelaide Strikers203/6

Innings 1