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Photo: Krish Dulal
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Women's T20 World Cup Qualifier · 2025/26 · Women
1 Feb 2026 · T20
Tribhuvan University International Cricket Ground, Kirtipur · Venue photographRecorded result
Scotland more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Scotland started on 81%; Scotland batted first.
Scotland's chances ranged from 82% to 100% during the match (United States of America: 0% to 19%).
Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darcey Carterbowled · Maahi Madhavan 7 fours · 2 sixes | bowled · b Maahi Madhavan | 52 | 34 | 7 | 2 | 152.94 |
| Katherine Frasercaught · CR Pagydyala · Tara Norris 2 fours · 1 sixes | caught · CR Pagydyala · b Tara Norris | 17 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 170.00 |
| Kathryn Brycebowled · Tara Norris 0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Tara Norris | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Sarah Brycecaught · AI Chudasama · Ritu Singh 2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · AI Chudasama · b Ritu Singh | 12 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 133.33 |
| Ailsa Listercaught · CR Pagydyala · Geetika Kodali 6 fours · 1 sixes | caught · CR Pagydyala · b Geetika Kodali | 43 | 32 | 6 | 1 | 134.38 |
| caught · AI Chudasama · b Maahi Madhavan |
| 4 |
| 2 |
| 1 |
| 0 |
| 200.00 |
| Priyanaz Chatterjistumped · Ella Claridge · Tara Norris 4 fours · 1 sixes | stumped · Ella Claridge · b Tara Norris | 39 | 28 | 4 | 1 | 139.29 |
|---|
| Rachel Slaternot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 2* | 2 | 0 | 0 | 100.00 |
|---|
| Chloe Abelstumped · Ella Claridge · Tara Norris 0 fours · 0 sixes | stumped · Ella Claridge · b Tara Norris | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 1 · legbyes: 5 · wides: 3 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AI Chudasama0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 20 | 0 | 10.00 | 0 | 0 |
 Tara Norris0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 33 | 4 | 8.25 | 0 | 0 |
| Geetika Kodali0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 35 | 1 | 11.67 | 2 | 0 |
| Ritu Singh0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 27 | 1 | 9.00 | 0 | 0 |
| S Immadi0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 34 | 0 | 8.50 | 1 | 0 |
| Maahi Madhavan0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 23 | 2 | 5.75 | 0 | 0 |
1-42 (Katherine Fraser, 3.1) · 2-42 (Kathryn Bryce, 3.2) · 3-82 (Sarah Bryce, 7.1) · 4-113 (Darcey Carter, 11.1) · 5-117 (Megan McColl, 11.3) · 6-158 (Ailsa Lister, 18.1) · 7-178 (Priyanaz Chatterji, 19.4) · 8-178 (Chloe Abel, 20.0)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 14 | 14/0 |
| 2 | 11 | 25/0 |
| 3 | 17 | 42/0 |
| 4 | 10 | 52/2 |
| 5 | 11 | 63/2 |
| 6 | 12 | 75/2 |
| 7 | 7 | 82/2 |
| 8 | 4 | 86/3 |
| 9 | 9 | 95/3 |
| 10 | 11 | 106/3 |
| 11 | 7 | 113/3 |
| 12 | 8 | 121/5 |
| 13 | 4 | 125/5 |
| 14 | 4 | 129/5 |
| 15 | 6 | 135/5 |
| 16 | 5 | 140/5 |
| 17 | 12 | 152/5 |
| 18 | 6 | 158/5 |
| 19 | 8 | 166/6 |
| 20 | 12 | 178/8 |
Tara Norris: Tukpuki · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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