New ZealandversusAustralia

21 Feb 2024 · T20

Wellington Regional Stadium · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Australia won by 6 wickets

New Zealand20.0 overs215/3 Australia20.0 overs216/4 Wellington Regional Stadium ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

New Zealand more likely to win

59%New Zealand41%Australia

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, New Zealand rate stronger than Australia (1,644 vs 1,596 on our results rating)
New Zealand are playing at home in New Zealand
In the last 10 T20 internationals between these sides, Australia won 6 and New Zealand won 4

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

New Zealand started on 57%; New Zealand batted first.

New Zealand’s chance of winning (%) · Australia is the rest

New Zealand's chances ranged from 45% to 95% during the match (Australia: 5% to 55%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 16.5: MJ Santner to JP Inglis, JP Inglis out. New Zealand up from 63% to 76%.
2nd inns 19.4: TG Southee to TH David, six by TH David. Australia up from 14% to 44%.
2nd inns 19.6: TG Southee to TH David, four by TH David. Australia up from 46% to 100%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

New Zealand215/3 Australia216/4

Innings 1

New Zealand

215/320.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

New Zealand batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Finn Allencaught · David Warner · Mitchell Starc 2 fours · 3 sixes	caught · David Warner · b Mitchell Starc	32	17	2	3	188.24
Devon Conwaycaught · Mitchell Starc · Mitchell Marsh 5 fours · 2 sixes	caught · Mitchell Starc · b Mitchell Marsh	63	46	5	2	136.96
Rachin Ravindracaught · Mitchell Starc · Pat Cummins 2 fours · 6 sixes	caught · Mitchell Starc · b Pat Cummins	68	35	2	6	194.29
Glenn Phillipsnot out 1 fours · 1 sixes	not out	19*	10	1	1	190.00
Mark Chapmannot out 0 fours · 1 sixes	not out	18*

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD	NB
Mitchell Starc0 maidens · 5 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	39	1	9.75	5	0
Josh Hazlewood0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	36	0	9.00	0	0
Glenn Maxwell0 maidens · 0 wides · 1 no-balls	2.0	32	0	16.00	0	1
Pat Cummins0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	43	1	10.75	3	0
Mitchell Marsh0 maidens · 4 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	21	1	7.00	4	0
Adam Zampa0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	42	0	14.00	0	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	3	3/0
2	13	16/0
3	20	36/0
4	15	51/0
5	8	59/0
6	9	68/1
7	7	75/1
8	4	79/1
9	6	85/1
10	12	97/1
11	13	110/1
12	11	121/1
13	10	131/1
14	10	141/1
15	24	165/1
16	9	174/2
17	4	178/3
18	6	184/3
19	16	200/3
20	15	215/3

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