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Photo: Younisjunejo
Original photograph ↗ · CC BY-SA 4.0
Resized and converted to WebP; original framing preserved.
Historical photograph; current appearance and conditions may differ.
South Africa Women tour of Pakistan · 2025/26 · Women
16 Sept 2025 · ODI
Gaddafi Stadium, Lahore · Venue photographRecorded result
South Africa more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Pakistan started on 42%; Pakistan batted first.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Muneeba Alilbw · Ayabonga Khaka 11 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Ayabonga Khaka | 76 | 94 | 11 | 0 | 80.85 |
| Shawaal Zulfiqarcaught · Sinalo Jafta · Ayabonga Khaka 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Sinalo Jafta · b Ayabonga Khaka | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Sidra Ameennot out 12 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 121* | 150 | 12 | 0 | 80.67 |
| Aliya Riazrun out · Sinalo Jafta, Nondumiso Shangase · Nonkululeko Mlaba 5 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Sinalo Jafta, Nondumiso Shangase | 33 | 34 | 5 | 0 | 97.06 |
| Fatima Sanacaught · Nonkululeko Mlaba · Tumi Sekhukhune 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Nonkululeko Mlaba · b Tumi Sekhukhune | 3 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 60.00 |
Pakistan's chances ranged from 0% to 75% during the match (South Africa: 25% to 100%).
Tested on every ball of 175 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.129, against 0.189 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| not out |
| 5* |
| 14 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 35.71 |
| Extras | byes: 2 · legbyes: 3 · wides: 12 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Marizanne Kapp0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 7.0 | 0 | 20 | 0 | 2.86 | 0 | 0 |
 Ayabonga Khaka0 maidens · 6 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.0 | 0 | 36 | 2 | 4.00 | 6 | 0 |
| Annerie Dercksen0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 5.0 | 0 | 35 | 0 | 7.00 | 2 | 0 |
| Nondumiso Shangase0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 32 | 0 | 8.00 | 0 | 0 |
 Nonkululeko Mlaba0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 52 | 0 | 5.20 | 0 | 0 |
| Tumi Sekhukhune1 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 8.0 | 1 | 37 | 1 | 4.63 | 1 | 0 |
| Suné Luus0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls | 7.0 | 0 | 38 | 0 | 5.43 | 3 | 0 |
1-3 (Shawaal Zulfiqar, 1.3) · 2-150 (Muneeba Ali, 30.4) · 3-218 (Aliya Riaz, 42.3) · 4-223 (Fatima Sana, 43.4)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | 2/0 |
| 2 | 1 | 3/1 |
| 3 | 2 | 5/1 |
| 4 | 2 | 7/1 |
| 5 | 3 | 10/1 |
| 6 | 5 | 15/1 |
| 7 | 8 | 23/1 |
| 8 | 11 | 34/1 |
| 9 | 4 | 38/1 |
| 10 | 1 | 39/1 |
| 11 | 6 | 45/1 |
| 12 | 2 | 47/1 |
| 13 | 1 | 48/1 |
| 14 | 8 | 56/1 |
| 15 | 1 | 57/1 |
| 16 | 4 | 61/1 |
| 17 | 10 | 71/1 |
| 18 | 7 | 78/1 |
| 19 | 4 | 82/1 |
| 20 | 9 | 91/1 |
| 21 | 9 | 100/1 |
| 22 | 3 | 103/1 |
| 23 | 8 | 111/1 |
| 24 | 7 | 118/1 |
| 25 | 3 | 121/1 |
| 26 | 4 | 125/1 |
| 27 | 6 | 131/1 |
| 28 | 5 | 136/1 |
| 29 | 5 | 141/1 |
| 30 | 7 | 148/1 |
| 31 | 8 | 156/2 |
| 32 | 3 | 159/2 |
| 33 | 2 | 161/2 |
| 34 | 5 | 166/2 |
| 35 | 7 | 173/2 |
| 36 | 6 | 179/2 |
| 37 | 5 | 184/2 |
| 38 | 10 | 194/2 |
| 39 | 3 | 197/2 |
| 40 | 6 | 203/2 |
| 41 | 2 | 205/2 |
| 42 | 12 | 217/2 |
| 43 | 4 | 221/3 |
| 44 | 5 | 226/4 |
| 45 | 3 | 229/4 |
| 46 | 1 | 230/4 |
| 47 | 8 | 238/4 |
| 48 | 8 | 246/4 |
| 49 | 5 | 251/4 |
| 50 | 4 | 255/4 |
Ayabonga Khaka: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Marizanne Kapp: Yu Chu Chin · CC BY-SA 4.0
Laura Wolvaardt: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Nonkululeko Mlaba: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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