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Spain Women tour of Greece · 2024 · Women
22 Sept 2024 · T20
Spain more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Greece started on 27%; Greece batted first.
Greece's chances ranged from 0% to 49% during the match (Spain: 51% to 100%).
Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M Syrioticaught · A Brown-Carrera · KR Frost 5 fours · 0 sixes | caught · A Brown-Carrera · b KR Frost | 32 | 30 | 5 | 0 | 106.67 |
| M Polimerirun out · Tashiba Mirza, S Basharat · KR Frost 0 fours · 0 sixes | run out · Tashiba Mirza, S Basharat | 8 | 34 | 0 | 0 | 23.53 |
| A Argyropouloucaught · Elspeth Fowler · KR Frost 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Elspeth Fowler · b KR Frost | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| A Gisdakinot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 8* | 23 | 0 | 0 | 34.78 |
| A Makricaught · A Brown-Carrera · Memoona Riaz 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · A Brown-Carrera · b Memoona Riaz | 10 | 23 | 0 | 0 | 43.48 |
| caught · A Brown-Carrera · b P Chilongia |
| 5 |
| 9 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 55.56 |
| DS Vlachopoulounot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 0* | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 2 · legbyes: 0 · wides: 17 · noballs: 3 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A Davidson-Soler0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 17 | 0 | 5.67 | 1 | 0 |
| A Brown-Carrera0 maidens · 8 wides · 2 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 23 | 0 | 7.67 | 8 | 2 |
| KR Frost0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 13 | 2 | 4.33 | 2 | 0 |
| NH Berejo1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.50 | 0 | 0 |
| S Basharat0 maidens · 1 wides · 1 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 3.50 | 1 | 1 |
| LD Chukkapalli-Llinares0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 6 | 0 | 3.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Memoona Riaz0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 7 | 1 | 3.50 | 3 | 0 |
| Uswa Syed1 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 3.00 | 1 | 0 |
| P Chilongia0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 3.00 | 1 | 0 |
1-53 (M Syrioti, 8.5) · 2-53 (A Argyropoulou, 9.0) · 3-55 (M Polimeri, 10.3) · 4-70 (A Makri, 15.2) · 5-85 (S Georgota, 19.3)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 | 8/0 |
| 2 | 4 | 12/0 |
| 3 | 3 | 15/0 |
| 4 | 2 | 17/0 |
| 5 | 8 | 25/0 |
| 6 | 17 | 42/0 |
| 7 | 5 | 47/0 |
| 8 | 0 | 47/0 |
| 9 | 6 | 53/2 |
| 10 | 1 | 54/2 |
| 11 | 2 | 56/3 |
| 12 | 2 | 58/3 |
| 13 | 4 | 62/3 |
| 14 | 5 | 67/3 |
| 15 | 2 | 69/3 |
| 16 | 5 | 74/4 |
| 17 | 6 | 80/4 |
| 18 | 2 | 82/4 |
| 19 | 0 | 82/4 |
| 20 | 3 | 85/5 |
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.