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Photo: Birdy10
Original photograph ↗ · CC BY-SA 3.0
Resized and converted to WebP; original framing preserved.
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ICC Men's T20 World Cup Europe Region Final · 2025 · Men
8 Jul 2025 · T20
Sportpark Westvliet, The Hague · Venue photographRecorded result
Jersey more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Jersey started on 66%; Jersey batted first.
Jersey's chances ranged from 51% to 100% during the match (Guernsey: 0% to 49%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harrison Carlyonrun out · A Martel · A Martel 6 fours · 1 sixes | run out · A Martel | 63 | 50 | 6 | 1 | 126.00 |
| Nick Greenwoodcaught and bowled · Anthony Stokes 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught and bowled · b Anthony Stokes | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Zak Tribecaught · M Dale-Bradley · LT Bichard 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · M Dale-Bradley · b LT Bichard | 6 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
| Jonty Jennerlbw · LT Bichard 2 fours · 3 sixes | lbw · b LT Bichard | 48 | 33 | 2 | 3 | 145.45 |
| Julius Sumerauernot out 1 fours · 1 sixes | not out | 29* | 16 | 1 | 1 | 181.25 |
| Charlie Brennan |
| not out |
| 8* |
| 8 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 100.00 |
| Extras | byes: 2 · legbyes: 0 · wides: 4 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anthony Stokes0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 16 | 1 | 8.00 | 0 | 0 |
| LT Bichard0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 26 | 2 | 6.50 | 0 | 0 |
| Harry Johnson0 maidens · 4 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 31 | 0 | 10.33 | 4 | 0 |
| A Martel0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 20 | 0 | 6.67 | 0 | 0 |
| Matthew Stokes0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 33 | 0 | 8.25 | 0 | 0 |
| M Dale-Bradley0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 32 | 0 | 8.00 | 0 | 0 |
1-5 (Nick Greenwood, 0.4) · 2-31 (Zak Tribe, 5.2) · 3-104 (Harrison Carlyon, 14.5) · 4-133 (Jonty Jenner, 17.0)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 | 7/1 |
| 2 | 3 | 10/1 |
| 3 | 4 | 14/1 |
| 4 | 7 | 21/1 |
| 5 | 10 | 31/1 |
| 6 | 2 | 33/2 |
| 7 | 5 | 38/2 |
| 8 | 9 | 47/2 |
| 9 | 10 | 57/2 |
| 10 | 9 | 66/2 |
| 11 | 6 | 72/2 |
| 12 | 9 | 81/2 |
| 13 | 9 | 90/2 |
| 14 | 11 | 101/2 |
| 15 | 4 | 105/3 |
| 16 | 17 | 122/3 |
| 17 | 11 | 133/4 |
| 18 | 11 | 144/4 |
| 19 | 10 | 154/4 |
| 20 | 6 | 160/4 |
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.