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Photo: Ruth Sharville
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Ireland Women tour of England · 2026 · Women
6 Sept 2026 · ODI
New Road, Worcester · Venue photographRecorded result
England more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
England started on 88%; England batted first.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maia Bouchiercaught · Gaby Lewis · KJ McCartney 6 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Gaby Lewis · b KJ McCartney | 39 | 35 | 6 | 0 | 111.43 |
 Sophia Dunkleycaught · Orla Prendergast · LA McBride15 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Orla Prendergast · b LA McBride | 119 | 119 | 15 | 0 | 100.00 |
| Jodi Grewcockcaught and bowled · Cara Murray 2 fours · 0 sixes | caught and bowled · b Cara Murray | 35 | 46 | 2 | 0 | 76.09 |
 Alice Capseyrun out · KJ McCartney · KJ McCartney0 fours · 0 sixes | run out · KJ McCartney | 10 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 90.91 |
England's chances ranged from 88% to 100% during the match (Ireland: 0% to 12%).
Tested on every ball of 175 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.129, against 0.189 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| caught · Gaby Lewis · b Cara Murray |
| 23 |
| 21 |
| 3 |
| 0 |
| 109.52 |
 Danielle Gibsonrun out · Amy Hunter, LA McBride · Orla Prendergast3 fours · 1 sixes | run out · Amy Hunter, LA McBride | 41 | 37 | 3 | 1 | 110.81 |
|---|
 Charlie Deancaught · Amy Hunter · Cara Murray1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Amy Hunter · b Cara Murray | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 200.00 |
|---|
| Mady Villierscaught · Louise Little · Cara Murray 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Louise Little · b Cara Murray | 3 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 60.00 |
|---|
| Ryana MacDonald-Gaycaught · Cara Murray · Arlene Kelly 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Cara Murray · b Arlene Kelly | 7 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 63.64 |
|---|
 Lauren Filercaught · Amy Hunter · Orla Prendergast0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Amy Hunter · b Orla Prendergast | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
|---|
| Matilda Corteen-Colemannot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 1* | 4 | 0 | 0 | 25.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 0 · wides: 8 · noballs: 1 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Orla Prendergast0 maidens · 4 wides · 0 no-balls | 6.5 | 0 | 48 | 1 | 7.02 | 4 | 0 |
| Arlene Kelly1 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 6.0 | 1 | 37 | 1 | 6.17 | 1 | 0 |
| KJ McCartney0 maidens · 0 wides · 1 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 53 | 1 | 5.30 | 0 | 1 |
| Louise Little0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 7.0 | 0 | 43 | 0 | 6.14 | 2 | 0 |
| Cara Murray0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 56 | 4 | 5.60 | 1 | 0 |
| LA McBride0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.0 | 0 | 54 | 1 | 6.00 | 0 | 0 |
1-73 (Maia Bouchier, 12.0) · 2-183 (Jodi Grewcock, 30.3) · 3-200 (Alice Capsey, 33.5) · 4-214 (Sophia Dunkley, 35.3) · 5-260 (Freya Kemp, 42.4) · 6-264 (Charlie Dean, 43.0) · 7-270 (Mady Villiers, 44.4) · 8-288 (Ryana MacDonald-Gay, 47.4) · 9-290 (Danielle Gibson, 48.0) · 10-291 (Lauren Filer, 48.5)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | 2/0 |
| 2 | 8 | 10/0 |
| 3 | 4 | 14/0 |
| 4 | 0 | 14/0 |
| 5 | 12 | 26/0 |
| 6 | 9 | 35/0 |
| 7 | 8 | 43/0 |
| 8 | 5 | 48/0 |
| 9 | 10 | 58/0 |
| 10 | 3 | 61/0 |
| 11 | 7 | 68/0 |
| 12 | 5 | 73/1 |
| 13 | 4 | 77/1 |
| 14 | 4 | 81/1 |
| 15 | 5 | 86/1 |
| 16 | 5 | 91/1 |
| 17 | 3 | 94/1 |
| 18 | 5 | 99/1 |
| 19 | 7 | 106/1 |
| 20 | 5 | 111/1 |
| 21 | 11 | 122/1 |
| 22 | 4 | 126/1 |
| 23 | 4 | 130/1 |
| 24 | 11 | 141/1 |
| 25 | 5 | 146/1 |
| 26 | 7 | 153/1 |
| 27 | 3 | 156/1 |
| 28 | 11 | 167/1 |
| 29 | 6 | 173/1 |
| 30 | 8 | 181/1 |
| 31 | 3 | 184/2 |
| 32 | 5 | 189/2 |
| 33 | 8 | 197/2 |
| 34 | 5 | 202/3 |
| 35 | 8 | 210/3 |
| 36 | 7 | 217/4 |
| 37 | 7 | 224/4 |
| 38 | 4 | 228/4 |
| 39 | 8 | 236/4 |
| 40 | 6 | 242/4 |
| 41 | 6 | 248/4 |
| 42 | 8 | 256/4 |
| 43 | 8 | 264/6 |
| 44 | 4 | 268/6 |
| 45 | 3 | 271/7 |
| 46 | 7 | 278/7 |
| 47 | 8 | 286/7 |
| 48 | 2 | 288/8 |
| 49 | 3 | 291/10 |
Charlie Dean: Mpk662 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Danielle Gibson: Mpk662 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Sophia Dunkley: Tukpuki · CC BY-SA 4.0
Lauren Filer: Mpk662 · CC BY-SA 4.0
Alice Capsey: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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