BangladeshversusZimbabwe

17 Jul 2026 · T20

Recorded result

Bangladesh won by 34 runs

Bangladesh20.0 overs186/5 Zimbabwe19.4 overs152/10 Queens Sports Club, Bulawayo ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Zimbabwe more likely to win

29%Bangladesh71%Zimbabwe

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, Zimbabwe rate stronger than Bangladesh (1,616 vs 1,474 on our results rating)
Zimbabwe are playing at home in Zimbabwe
In the last 10 T20 internationals between these sides, Bangladesh won 6 and Zimbabwe won 4

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Bangladesh started on 28%; Bangladesh batted first.

Bangladesh’s chance of winning (%) · Zimbabwe is the rest

Bangladesh's chances ranged from 28% to 100% during the match (Zimbabwe: 0% to 73%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 1.6: Nahid Rana to BJ Bennett, BJ Bennett out. Bangladesh up from 58% to 72%.
2nd inns 2.4: Mahedi Hasan to D Myers, D Myers out. Bangladesh up from 73% to 85%.
2nd inns 6.5: Rishad Hossain to Sikandar Raza, Sikandar Raza out. Bangladesh up from 67% to 82%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Bangladesh186/5 Zimbabwe152/10

Innings 1

Bangladesh

186/520.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Bangladesh batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Saif Hassanbowled · Sikandar Raza 8 fours · 1 sixes	bowled · b Sikandar Raza	55	45	8	1	122.22
Tanzid Hasanbowled · Richard Ngarava 6 fours · 2 sixes	bowled · b Richard Ngarava	58	44	6	2	131.82
Tawhid Hridoycaught · Clive Madande · Richard Ngarava 1 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Clive Madande · b Richard Ngarava	6	5	1	0	120.00
Parvez Hossain Emoncaught · Sikandar Raza · Brad Evans 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Sikandar Raza · b Brad Evans	1	2	0	0	50.00

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Brian Bennett0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	9	0	9.00	1
Richard Ngarava0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	23	2	5.75	2
Sikandar Raza0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	20	1	5.00	0
Blessing Muzarabani0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	35	0	8.75	1
Brad Evans0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	65	2	16.25	1
Ryan Burl0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	21	0	10.50	1
Milton Shumba0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	10	0	10.00	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	9	9/0
2	1	10/0
3	10	20/0
4	8	28/0
5	13	41/0
6	13	54/0
7	5	59/0
8	11	70/0
9	4	74/0
10	10	84/0
11	4	88/0
12	11	99/0
13	10	109/0
14	10	119/0
15	2	121/1
16	8	129/3
17	13	142/5
18	8	150/5
19	8	158/5
20	28	186/5

Bringing the game to you…

Help make cricket’s story more accurate.