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Photo: Michal Klajban
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South Africa Women tour of New Zealand · 2025/26 · Women
29 Mar 2026 · ODI
Hagley Oval, Christchurch · Venue photographRecorded result
South Africa more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
New Zealand started on 41%; New Zealand batted first.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Suzie Batescaught · Annerie Dercksen · Tumi Sekhukhune2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Annerie Dercksen · b Tumi Sekhukhune | 20 | 36 | 2 | 0 | 55.56 |
| Georgia Plimmerbowled · Nadine de Klerk 4 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Nadine de Klerk | 28 | 31 | 4 | 0 | 90.32 |
 Amelia Kerrcaught · Sinalo Jafta · Ayabonga Khaka3 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Sinalo Jafta · b Ayabonga Khaka | 36 | 60 | 3 | 0 | 60.00 |
 Maddy Greenlbw · Ayabonga Khaka9 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Ayabonga Khaka | 85 |
New Zealand's chances ranged from 15% to 91% during the match (South Africa: 9% to 85%).
Tested on every ball of 175 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.129, against 0.189 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| 83 |
| 9 |
| 0 |
| 102.41 |
| Brooke Hallidaycaught · Sinalo Jafta · Chloe Tryon 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Sinalo Jafta · b Chloe Tryon | 1 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 12.50 |
|---|
| Izzy Gazecaught · Suné Luus · Chloe Tryon 5 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Suné Luus · b Chloe Tryon | 37 | 46 | 5 | 0 | 80.43 |
|---|
| Izzy Sharpcaught · Laura Wolvaardt · Ayabonga Khaka 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Laura Wolvaardt · b Ayabonga Khaka | 9 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 69.23 |
|---|
| Jess Kerrbowled · Ayabonga Khaka 4 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Ayabonga Khaka | 24 | 14 | 4 | 0 | 171.43 |
|---|
| Flora Devonshirecaught · Tazmin Brits · Ayabonga Khaka 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Tazmin Brits · b Ayabonga Khaka | 9 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 150.00 |
|---|
| Rosemary Maircaught · Tazmin Brits · Ayabonga Khaka 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Tazmin Brits · b Ayabonga Khaka | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 200.00 |
|---|
| Bree Illingnot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 1* | 1 | 0 | 0 | 100.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 1 · legbyes: 5 · wides: 8 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Ayabonga Khaka1 maidens · 6 wides · 0 no-balls | 10.0 | 1 | 56 | 6 | 5.60 | 6 | 0 |
| Annerie Dercksen0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 16 | 0 | 4.00 | 1 | 0 |
| Tumi Sekhukhune1 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 7.0 | 1 | 38 | 1 | 5.43 | 0 | 0 |
| Nadine de Klerk0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 7.0 | 0 | 40 | 1 | 5.71 | 1 | 0 |
 Nonkululeko Mlaba0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.0 | 0 | 49 | 0 | 5.44 | 0 | 0 |
 Chloe Tryon0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.0 | 0 | 46 | 2 | 5.11 | 0 | 0 |
| K Reyneke0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 17 | 0 | 4.25 | 0 | 0 |
1-42 (Suzie Bates, 9.1) · 2-71 (Georgia Plimmer, 16.2) · 3-109 (Amelia Kerr, 26.2) · 4-112 (Brooke Halliday, 28.0) · 5-182 (Izzy Gaze, 41.3) · 6-216 (Izzy Sharp, 45.1) · 7-250 (Maddy Green, 47.4) · 8-262 (Flora Devonshire, 49.1) · 9-266 (Rosemary Mair, 49.3) · 10-268 (Jess Kerr, 50.0)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | 6/0 |
| 2 | 6 | 12/0 |
| 3 | 0 | 12/0 |
| 4 | 5 | 17/0 |
| 5 | 8 | 25/0 |
| 6 | 5 | 30/0 |
| 7 | 8 | 38/0 |
| 8 | 0 | 38/0 |
| 9 | 4 | 42/0 |
| 10 | 4 | 46/1 |
| 11 | 1 | 47/1 |
| 12 | 6 | 53/1 |
| 13 | 6 | 59/1 |
| 14 | 7 | 66/1 |
| 15 | 3 | 69/1 |
| 16 | 1 | 70/1 |
| 17 | 2 | 72/2 |
| 18 | 5 | 77/2 |
| 19 | 1 | 78/2 |
| 20 | 8 | 86/2 |
| 21 | 8 | 94/2 |
| 22 | 3 | 97/2 |
| 23 | 4 | 101/2 |
| 24 | 3 | 104/2 |
| 25 | 2 | 106/2 |
| 26 | 2 | 108/2 |
| 27 | 1 | 109/3 |
| 28 | 3 | 112/4 |
| 29 | 2 | 114/4 |
| 30 | 6 | 120/4 |
| 31 | 2 | 122/4 |
| 32 | 3 | 125/4 |
| 33 | 10 | 135/4 |
| 34 | 7 | 142/4 |
| 35 | 3 | 145/4 |
| 36 | 3 | 148/4 |
| 37 | 7 | 155/4 |
| 38 | 10 | 165/4 |
| 39 | 5 | 170/4 |
| 40 | 6 | 176/4 |
| 41 | 5 | 181/4 |
| 42 | 1 | 182/5 |
| 43 | 8 | 190/5 |
| 44 | 16 | 206/5 |
| 45 | 10 | 216/5 |
| 46 | 13 | 229/6 |
| 47 | 14 | 243/6 |
| 48 | 9 | 252/7 |
| 49 | 10 | 262/7 |
| 50 | 6 | 268/10 |
Ayabonga Khaka: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Laura Wolvaardt: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Nonkululeko Mlaba: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Maddy Green: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Amelia Kerr: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Suzie Bates: paddynapper · CC BY-SA 2.0
Chloe Tryon: Bahnfrend · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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