ThailandversusHong Kong

5 Dec 2024 · T20

Recorded result

Thailand won by 69 runs

Thailand20.0 overs137/5 Hong Kong17.1 overs68/10 Mission Road Ground, Mong Kok, Hong Kong ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

Thailand more likely to win

58%Thailand42%Hong Kong

Why

In the last 4 T20 internationals between these sides, Thailand won 4 and Hong Kong won 0
Hong Kong are playing at home in Hong Kong
On results in T20 internationals so far, Thailand rate stronger than Hong Kong (1,528 vs 1,528 on our results rating)

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Thailand started on 56%; Thailand batted first.

Thailand’s chance of winning (%) · Hong Kong is the rest

Thailand's chances ranged from 51% to 100% during the match (Hong Kong: 0% to 50%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 2.2: C Sutthiruang to NT Miles, NT Miles out. Thailand up from 67% to 77%.
2nd inns 5.1: T Putthawong to M Hill, M Hill out. Thailand up from 78% to 85%.
2nd inns 9.3: O Kamchomphu to Shanzeen Shahzad, KY Chan out. Thailand up from 81% to 88%.

Tested on every ball of 1,050 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.120, against 0.177 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Thailand137/5 Hong Kong68/10

Innings 1

Thailand

137/520.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Thailand batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Nattaya Boochathambowled · M Bibi 1 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b M Bibi	11	23	1	0	47.83
Nannapat Koncharoenkaibowled · Kary Chan 3 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Kary Chan	19	16	3	0	118.75
Aphisara Suwanchonrathicaught · Kary Chan · M Bibi 2 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Kary Chan · b M Bibi	16	18	2	0	88.89
Chanida Sutthiruangcaught · Natasha Miles · Chan Ka Man 4 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Natasha Miles · b Chan Ka Man	31

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
M Wai Siu0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	26	0	8.67	0
Kary Chan0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	17	2	4.25	2
Chan Ka Man0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	21	1	5.25	0
SYD Chan0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	22	0	7.33	1
M Bibi0 maidens · 7 wides · 0 no-balls	3.0	31	2	10.33	7
Ruchitha Venkatesh0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	2.0	8	0	4.00	0
Fatima Amir0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls	1.0	10	0	10.00	3

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	6	6/0
2	3	9/0
3	13	22/0
4	1	23/0
5	3	26/0
6	4	30/1
7	6	36/1
8	5	41/1
9	8	49/1
10	9	58/3
11	2	60/3
12	13	73/3
13	6	79/3
14	10	89/3
15	8	97/3
16	9	106/3
17	9	115/3
18	4	119/4
19	9	128/4
20	9	137/5

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