South AfricaversusEngland

8 Dec 2024 · ODI

Kingsmead, Durban · Venue photograph

Recorded result

England won by 6 wickets

South Africa31.3 overs135/10 England24.0 overs137/4 Kingsmead, Durban ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

England more likely to win

43%South Africa57%England

Why

On results in ODIs so far, England rate stronger than South Africa (1,684 vs 1,573 on our results rating)
South Africa are playing at home in South Africa
In the last 10 ODIs between these sides, England won 7 and South Africa won 3

Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

South Africa started on 40%; South Africa batted first.

South Africa’s chance of winning (%) · England is the rest

South Africa's chances ranged from 0% to 45% during the match (England: 55% to 100%).

Biggest swings

1.2: L Filer to T Brits, T Brits out. England up from 57% to 71%.
16.3: CE Dean to A Dercksen, A Dercksen out. England up from 55% to 65%.
16.6: CE Dean to M Kapp, M Kapp out. England up from 65% to 79%.

Tested on every ball of 175 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.129, against 0.189 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

South Africa135/10 England137/4

Innings 1

South Africa

135/1031.3 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

South Africa batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Laura Wolvaardtbowled · Sophie Ecclestone 5 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Sophie Ecclestone	35	50	5	0	70.00
Tazmin Britsbowled · Lauren Filer 1 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Lauren Filer	5	3	1	0	166.67
Suné Luusbowled · Lauren Filer 1 fours · 0 sixes	bowled · b Lauren Filer	4	6	1	0	66.67
Annerie Dercksencaught · Lauren Filer · Charlie Dean 4 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Lauren Filer · b Charlie Dean	29	44	4	0	65.91
Marizanne Kapp

Bowler	Overs	M	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Kate Cross0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	18	0	4.50	0
Lauren Filer0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls	6.0	0	32	3	5.33	3
Charlie Dean1 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls	10.0	1	45	4	4.50	1
Nat Sciver-Brunt0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	0	11	0	2.75	0
Sophie Ecclestone0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	7.3	0	27	3	3.60	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	2	2/0
2	8	10/1
3	4	14/1
4	1	15/2
5	3	18/2
6	3	21/2
7	9	30/2
8	5	35/2
9	5	40/2
10	1	41/2
11	11	52/2
12	6	58/2
13	3	61/2
14	1	62/2
15	6	68/2
16	3	71/2
17	1	72/4
18	4	76/5
19	0	76/7
20	1	77/7
21	5	82/7
22	7	89/7
23	5	94/7
24	7	101/7
25	1	102/8
26	1	103/8
27	14	117/8
28	5	122/8
29	5	127/8
30	1	128/9
31	5	133/9
32	2	135/10

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