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Men's T20 Asia Cup · 2025 · Men
12 Sept 2025 · T20
Dubai International Cricket Stadium · Venue photographRecorded result
Pakistan more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Pakistan started on 73%; Pakistan batted first.
Pakistan's chances ranged from 62% to 100% during the match (Oman: 0% to 38%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sahibzada Farhancaught and bowled · Aamir Kaleem 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught and bowled · b Aamir Kaleem | 29 | 29 | 1 | 0 | 100.00 |
| Saim Ayublbw · Shah Faisal 0 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Shah Faisal | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Mohammad Harisbowled · Aamir Kaleem 7 fours · 3 sixes | bowled · b Aamir Kaleem | 66 | 43 | 7 | 3 | 153.49 |
 Fakhar Zamannot out2 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 23* | 16 | 2 | 0 | 143.75 |
| Salman Ali Aghacaught · Hammad Mirza · Aamir Kaleem 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Hammad Mirza · b Aamir Kaleem | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 0.00 |
| Hassan Nawazcaught · Hassnain Shah · Shah Faisal 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Hassnain Shah · b Shah Faisal | 9 | 15 | 0 | 0 | 60.00 |
|---|
| Mohammad Nawazcaught · J Ramanandi · Shah Faisal 4 fours · 0 sixes | caught · J Ramanandi · b Shah Faisal | 19 | 10 | 4 | 0 | 190.00 |
|---|
| Fahim Ashrafcaught · Zikria Islam · Mohammad Nadeem 1 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Zikria Islam · b Mohammad Nadeem | 8 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 200.00 |
|---|
 Shaheen Afridinot out0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 2* | 1 | 0 | 0 | 200.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 0 · wides: 4 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shah Faisal0 maidens · 3 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 34 | 3 | 8.50 | 3 | 0 |
| Shakeel Ahmed0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 17 | 0 | 4.25 | 0 | 0 |
| Mohammad Nadeem0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 23 | 1 | 7.67 | 1 | 0 |
| Aamir Kaleem0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 31 | 3 | 7.75 | 0 | 0 |
| Samay Shrivastava0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 12 | 0 | 12.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Hassnain Shah0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 31 | 0 | 10.33 | 0 | 0 |
| Sufyan Mehmood0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 1.0 | 0 | 12 | 0 | 12.00 | 0 | 0 |
1-4 (Saim Ayub, 0.2) · 2-89 (Sahibzada Farhan, 11.0) · 3-102 (Mohammad Haris, 12.5) · 4-102 (Salman Ali Agha, 13.0) · 5-120 (Hassan Nawaz, 16.4) · 6-148 (Mohammad Nawaz, 19.0) · 7-158 (Fahim Ashraf, 19.5)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 10 | 10/1 |
| 2 | 2 | 12/1 |
| 3 | 7 | 19/1 |
| 4 | 8 | 27/1 |
| 5 | 4 | 31/1 |
| 6 | 16 | 47/1 |
| 7 | 7 | 54/1 |
| 8 | 12 | 66/1 |
| 9 | 7 | 73/1 |
| 10 | 12 | 85/1 |
| 11 | 4 | 89/2 |
| 12 | 9 | 98/2 |
| 13 | 4 | 102/4 |
| 14 | 2 | 104/4 |
| 15 | 7 | 111/4 |
| 16 | 5 | 116/4 |
| 17 | 9 | 125/5 |
| 18 | 15 | 140/5 |
| 19 | 8 | 148/6 |
| 20 | 12 | 160/7 |
Shaheen Afridi: CRICKETNEXT · CC BY 3.0
Fakhar Zaman: Pakistan Cricket Board · CC BY 3.0
Abrar Ahmed: Nazly Ahmed · CC BY-SA 4.0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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