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Zimbabwe Women tour of Ireland · 2025 · Women
26 Jul 2025 · ODI
Recorded result
Ireland more likely to win
Model tested on 501 past ODIs it never saw: its favourite won 63% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
Ireland started on 57%; Ireland batted first.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sarah Forbescaught · Nomvelo Sibanda · Loren Tshuma 6 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Nomvelo Sibanda · b Loren Tshuma | 54 | 78 | 6 | 0 | 69.23 |
| Gaby Lewiscaught · T Makusha · L Mabhero 7 fours · 0 sixes | caught · T Makusha · b L Mabhero | 51 | 61 | 7 | 0 | 83.61 |
| Amy Hunterlbw · Loren Tshuma 6 fours · 0 sixes | lbw · b Loren Tshuma | 43 | 38 | 6 | 0 | 113.16 |
| Orla Prendergaststumped · Chiedza Dhururu · Kelis Ndhlovu 5 fours · 0 sixes | stumped · Chiedza Dhururu · b Kelis Ndhlovu | 50 | 53 | 5 | 0 | 94.34 |
| Laura Delanycaught and bowled · Kelis Ndhlovu 4 fours · 0 sixes | caught and bowled · b Kelis Ndhlovu | 34 | 34 | 4 | 0 | 100.00 |
Ireland's chances ranged from 57% to 100% during the match (Zimbabwe: 0% to 43%).
Tested on every ball of 175 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.129, against 0.189 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
| caught · L Mabhero · b K Chigora |
| 3 |
| 5 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 60.00 |
| CE Coulter Reillystumped · Chiedza Dhururu · Kelis Ndhlovu 0 fours · 0 sixes | stumped · Chiedza Dhururu · b Kelis Ndhlovu | 4 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 50.00 |
|---|
| Jane Maguirecaught · Chipo Mugeri · T Makusha 0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Chipo Mugeri · b T Makusha | 3 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 37.50 |
|---|
| Arlene Kellynot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 8* | 7 | 0 | 0 | 114.29 |
|---|
| Cara Murraybowled · T Makusha 1 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b T Makusha | 8 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 100.00 |
|---|
| LA McBridenot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 2* | 2 | 0 | 0 | 100.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 4 · legbyes: 0 · wides: 22 · noballs: 2 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nomvelo Sibanda1 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 8.0 | 1 | 46 | 0 | 5.75 | 2 | 0 |
| K Chigora0 maidens · 9 wides · 1 no-balls | 10.0 | 0 | 53 | 1 | 5.30 | 9 | 1 |
| T Makusha0 maidens · 8 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.0 | 0 | 47 | 2 | 5.22 | 8 | 0 |
| L Mabhero0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 5.0 | 0 | 30 | 1 | 6.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Kelis Ndhlovu0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls | 9.0 | 0 | 50 | 3 | 5.56 | 2 | 0 |
| Loren Tshuma0 maidens · 1 wides · 1 no-balls | 6.0 | 0 | 37 | 2 | 6.17 | 1 | 1 |
| B Biza0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 21 | 0 | 7.00 | 0 | 0 |
1-116 (Gaby Lewis, 21.3) · 2-156 (Sarah Forbes, 26.4) · 3-194 (Amy Hunter, 32.2) · 4-253 (Orla Prendergast, 42.2) · 5-260 (Laura Delany, 44.1) · 6-264 (Leah Paul, 45.3) · 7-264 (CE Coulter Reilly, 46.2) · 8-272 (Jane Maguire, 47.5) · 9-283 (Cara Murray, 49.2)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9 | 9/0 |
| 2 | 13 | 22/0 |
| 3 | 0 | 22/0 |
| 4 | 6 | 28/0 |
| 5 | 11 | 39/0 |
| 6 | 5 | 44/0 |
| 7 | 2 | 46/0 |
| 8 | 2 | 48/0 |
| 9 | 4 | 52/0 |
| 10 | 3 | 55/0 |
| 11 | 3 | 58/0 |
| 12 | 2 | 60/0 |
| 13 | 4 | 64/0 |
| 14 | 6 | 70/0 |
| 15 | 8 | 78/0 |
| 16 | 7 | 85/0 |
| 17 | 5 | 90/0 |
| 18 | 3 | 93/0 |
| 19 | 1 | 94/0 |
| 20 | 8 | 102/0 |
| 21 | 10 | 112/0 |
| 22 | 4 | 116/1 |
| 23 | 12 | 128/1 |
| 24 | 9 | 137/1 |
| 25 | 3 | 140/1 |
| 26 | 6 | 146/1 |
| 27 | 12 | 158/2 |
| 28 | 4 | 162/2 |
| 29 | 5 | 167/2 |
| 30 | 9 | 176/2 |
| 31 | 8 | 184/2 |
| 32 | 9 | 193/2 |
| 33 | 3 | 196/3 |
| 34 | 7 | 203/3 |
| 35 | 3 | 206/3 |
| 36 | 7 | 213/3 |
| 37 | 8 | 221/3 |
| 38 | 7 | 228/3 |
| 39 | 9 | 237/3 |
| 40 | 8 | 245/3 |
| 41 | 6 | 251/3 |
| 42 | 2 | 253/3 |
| 43 | 2 | 255/4 |
| 44 | 5 | 260/4 |
| 45 | 3 | 263/5 |
| 46 | 1 | 264/6 |
| 47 | 4 | 268/7 |
| 48 | 4 | 272/8 |
| 49 | 11 | 283/8 |
| 50 | 5 | 288/9 |
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.