Washington FreedomversusSan Francisco Unicorns

28 Jun 2026 · T20

Oakland Coliseum, Oakland · Venue photograph

Recorded result

San Francisco Unicorns won by 8 wickets

Washington Freedom20.0 overs190/4 San Francisco Unicorns15.1 overs193/2 Oakland Coliseum, Oakland ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Washington Freedom started on 53%; Washington Freedom batted first.

Washington Freedom’s chance of winning (%) · San Francisco Unicorns is the rest

Washington Freedom's chances ranged from 0% to 69% during the match (San Francisco Unicorns: 31% to 100%).

Biggest swings

3.1: Haris Rauf to SPD Smith, SPD Smith out. San Francisco Unicorns up from 37% to 48%.
6.4: Ghulam Mudassar to MJ Owen, MJ Owen out. San Francisco Unicorns up from 40% to 49%.
10.2: MW Short to MS Chapman, MS Chapman out. San Francisco Unicorns up from 41% to 48%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Washington Freedom190/4 San Francisco Unicorns193/2

Innings 1