PakistanversusNew Zealand

19 Jan 2024 · T20

Hagley Oval, Christchurch · Venue photograph

Recorded result

New Zealand won by 7 wickets

Pakistan20.0 overs158/5 New Zealand18.1 overs159/3 Hagley Oval, Christchurch ↗

Win chances before this match

Before the toss

New Zealand more likely to win

21%Pakistan79%New Zealand

Why

On results in T20 internationals so far, New Zealand rate stronger than Pakistan (1,667 vs 1,503 on our results rating)
New Zealand are playing at home in New Zealand
In the last 10 T20 internationals between these sides, New Zealand won 6 and Pakistan won 4

Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Pakistan started on 18%; Pakistan batted first.

Pakistan’s chance of winning (%) · New Zealand is the rest

Pakistan's chances ranged from 0% to 52% during the match (New Zealand: 48% to 100%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 0.4: Shaheen Shah Afridi to FH Allen, FH Allen out. Pakistan up from 16% to 25%.
2nd inns 0.6: Shaheen Shah Afridi to TL Seifert, TL Seifert out. Pakistan up from 23% to 34%.
2nd inns 2.4: Shaheen Shah Afridi to WA Young, WA Young out. Pakistan up from 33% to 50%.

Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Pakistan158/5 New Zealand159/3

Innings 1

Pakistan

158/520.0 overs

Batting, bowling & fall of wickets

Pakistan batting
Batter	Dismissal	R	B	4s	6s	SR
Saim Ayubcaught · Daryl Mitchell · Matt Henry 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Daryl Mitchell · b Matt Henry	1	6	0	0	16.67
Mohammad Rizwannot out 6 fours · 2 sixes	not out	90*	63	6	2	142.86
Mohammad Babar Azamcaught · Glenn Phillips · Adam Milne 2 fours · 1 sixes	caught · Glenn Phillips · b Adam Milne	19	11	2	1	172.73
Fakhar Zamancaught · Mark Chapman · Lockie Ferguson 0 fours · 0 sixes	caught · Mark Chapman · b Lockie Ferguson	9	15

Bowler	Overs	R	W	Runs / 6 balls	WD
Tim Southee0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	36	0	9.00	0
Matt Henry0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	22	2	5.50	0
Adam Milne0 maidens · 4 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	49	1	12.25	4
Lockie Ferguson0 maidens · 2 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	27	2	6.75	2
Mitchell Santner0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls	4.0	23	0	5.75	0

Over / set	Runs	Score
1	4	4/0
2	1	5/1
3	11	16/1
4	8	24/1
5	12	36/1
6	15	51/1
7	5	56/2
8	5	61/2
9	4	65/2
10	6	71/2
11	6	77/2
12	5	82/2
13	4	86/4
14	12	98/4
15	14	112/4
16	7	119/4
17	5	124/4
18	7	131/5
19	21	152/5
20	6	158/5

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