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South Africa tour of New Zealand · 2025/26 · Men
20 Mar 2026 · T20
Eden Park, Auckland · Venue photographRecorded result
New Zealand more likely to win
Model tested on 2,789 past T20 internationals it never saw: its favourite won 73% of the time.
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Worked out only from matches played before this one. The chances come from each side’s results rating in this format (an Elo rating that moves after every result), who is at home, recent form and past meetings. We tested it on matches from 2024 onwards that it had never seen. Upsets happen.
South Africa started on 39%; South Africa batted first.
South Africa's chances ranged from 0% to 43% during the match (New Zealand: 57% to 100%).
Tested on every ball of 1,498 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.130, against 0.197 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).
A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.
Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.
Innings 1
| Batter | Dismissal | R | B | 4s | 6s | SR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony de Zorzicaught · Lockie Ferguson · Ben Sears 2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Lockie Ferguson · b Ben Sears | 15 | 18 | 2 | 0 | 83.33 |
 Wiaan Muldercaught · Cole McConchie · Lockie Ferguson0 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Cole McConchie · b Lockie Ferguson | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 |
| Connor Esterhuizencaught · Nick Kelly · Mitchell Santner 2 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Nick Kelly · b Mitchell Santner | 15 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 187.50 |
| Jason Smithcaught · Devon Conway · Mitchell Santner 2 fours · 0 sixes | caught · Devon Conway · b Mitchell Santner | 10 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 142.86 |
| Rubin Hermannbowled · Cole McConchie0 fours · 0 sixes |
| bowled · b Cole McConchie |
| 4 |
| 8 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 50.00 |
| Dian Forrestercaught · Tim Robinson · James Neesham 1 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Tim Robinson · b James Neesham | 17 | 15 | 1 | 1 | 113.33 |
|---|
| George Lindecaught · Tom Latham · Kyle Jamieson 2 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Tom Latham · b Kyle Jamieson | 23 | 19 | 2 | 1 | 121.05 |
|---|
| Gerald Coetzeecaught · Tom Latham · Kyle Jamieson 2 fours · 1 sixes | caught · Tom Latham · b Kyle Jamieson | 16 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 200.00 |
|---|
 Keshav Maharajbowled · Ben Sears0 fours · 0 sixes | bowled · b Ben Sears | 3 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 37.50 |
|---|
| N Mokoenanot out 1 fours · 3 sixes | not out | 26* | 20 | 1 | 3 | 130.00 |
|---|
| Lutho Sipamlanot out 0 fours · 0 sixes | not out | 4* | 5 | 0 | 0 | 80.00 |
|---|
| Extras | byes: 0 · legbyes: 1 · wides: 2 · noballs: 0 · penalty: 0 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bowler | Overs | M | R | W | Runs / 6 balls | WD | NB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Kyle Jamieson0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 42 | 2 | 10.50 | 1 | 0 |
 Lockie Ferguson0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 9 | 1 | 2.25 | 0 | 0 |
| Mitchell Santner0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 21 | 2 | 7.00 | 0 | 0 |
| Ben Sears0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 4.0 | 0 | 27 | 2 | 6.75 | 0 | 0 |
| Cole McConchie0 maidens · 1 wides · 0 no-balls | 2.0 | 0 | 14 | 1 | 7.00 | 1 | 0 |
| James Neesham0 maidens · 0 wides · 0 no-balls | 3.0 | 0 | 22 | 1 | 7.33 | 0 | 0 |
1-7 (Wiaan Mulder, 1.5) · 2-26 (Connor Esterhuizen, 4.2) · 3-36 (Tony de Zorzi, 5.3) · 4-44 (Jason Smith, 7.0) · 5-46 (Rubin Hermann, 8.0) · 6-68 (Dian Forrester, 11.1) · 7-102 (George Linde, 14.2) · 8-103 (Gerald Coetzee, 14.5) · 9-112 (Keshav Maharaj, 16.2)
| Over / set | Runs | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | 6/0 |
| 2 | 1 | 7/1 |
| 3 | 15 | 22/1 |
| 4 | 4 | 26/1 |
| 5 | 6 | 32/2 |
| 6 | 9 | 41/3 |
| 7 | 3 | 44/4 |
| 8 | 2 | 46/5 |
| 9 | 4 | 50/5 |
| 10 | 12 | 62/5 |
| 11 | 6 | 68/5 |
| 12 | 7 | 75/6 |
| 13 | 12 | 87/6 |
| 14 | 11 | 98/6 |
| 15 | 11 | 109/8 |
| 16 | 3 | 112/8 |
| 17 | 3 | 115/9 |
| 18 | 2 | 117/9 |
| 19 | 9 | 126/9 |
| 20 | 10 | 136/9 |
Wiaan Mulder: EGilham · CC BY-SA 4.0
Kyle Jamieson: Photographer - David Hollander · CC BY 3.0 nz
Lockie Ferguson: CRICKETNEXT · CC BY 3.0
Keshav Maharaj: Dave Morton · Public domain
Tom Latham: Robert Drummond · CC0
Statistics are calculated from imported deliveries. Super overs are separate; source corrections may change recorded figures.
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