**Basin Reserve, Wellington**
Photo: PaddyBriggs
Original photograph ↗ · Public domain
Resized and converted to WebP; original framing preserved.
Historical photograph; current appearance and conditions may differ.

Super Smash · 2025/26 · Men

Central DistrictsversusWellington

7 Jan 2026 · T20

Basin Reserve, Wellington · Venue photograph

Recorded result

Central Districts won by 2 runs

Central Districts20.0 overs197/3 Wellington20.0 overs195/7 Basin Reserve, Wellington ↗

How the win chances moved

Ball by ball

Central Districts started on 49%; Central Districts batted first.

Central Districts’s chance of winning (%) · Wellington is the rest

Central Districts's chances ranged from 43% to 99% during the match (Wellington: 2% to 57%).

Biggest swings

2nd inns 15.1: TA Findlay to GR Severin, GR Severin out. Central Districts up from 65% to 80%.
2nd inns 19.5: TA Findlay to LV van Beek, four by LV van Beek. Wellington up from 8% to 27%.
2nd inns 19.6: TA Findlay to LV van Beek, 1 run to LV van Beek. Central Districts up from 73% to 100%.

Tested on every ball of 1,336 matches from 2024 it never saw: error score 0.175, against 0.247 for the pre-match chance alone (lower is better).

A prediction, not a certainty. For fun and insight, not betting.

How this works

Before a ball is bowled the chance comes from the pre-match model. After each ball we compare the score with what usually follows from that many overs and wickets left at this ground (like a rain-rule resource table) and, in a chase, with the runs still needed. Early on the pre-match view counts most; late on the situation does.

Central Districts197/3 Wellington195/7

Innings 1